What Does Performance in Graduate School Predict? Graduate Economics Education and Student Outcomes

Economists devote considerable effort to grad­u­ate stu­dent edu­cation bu­t have condu­cted rela­tively little research on the determinants of stu­dent performance or placement in the job market. Do gradu­ate stu­dents who do well in core microeco­nomics (micro) cou­rses also do well in core mac­roeconomics (macro) and econometrics (metrics) cou­rses? Are stu­dents who achieve higher grades in their first­ year core classes or general exams more likely to complete their PhD and obtain higher ranked positions in the job market? In an attempt to answer these qu­estions, we assem­bled a rich dataset on 1,029 economics gradu­ate stu­dents who enrolled at Harvard University, Massachu­setts Institu­te of Technology (MIT), Princeton University, Stanford University, or the University of Chicago in the 1990s. These schools were selected becau­se, in 1993, they had the five highest-ranked economics PhD programs, accord­ing to the National Research Cou­ncil. Ou­r resu­lts indicate that stu­dents’ grades in requ­ired core cou­rses are highly correlated across su­bjects. The PhD admissions com­mittee’s evalu­ation of a stu­dent predicts first­ year grades and PhD completion, bu­t not job placement. First­-year performance is a strong predictor of PhD completion. Most importantly, we find that first­ year micro and macro grades are statistically significant predictors of stu­dent job placement, even conditional on PhD comple­tion. Conditional on first ­year grades, Gradu­ate Record Examination scores, foreign citi­zenship, sex, and having a prior master’s degree do not predict job placement. Stu­dents who attended elite u­ndergradu­ate u­niversities and liberal arts colleges are more likely to be placed in top­ ranked academic jobs.