Business Cycles: Jackson Library: Stanford GSB

Nobel Prize on Business Cycles:

	Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy (2004). View eBook
	Business Cycles and Economic Growth: An Analysis Using Leading Indicators. HB3711 .B937 2004
	Business Cycles: Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting. HB3711 .D54 1999

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Hot Topics: Business Cycles

The current fluctuations of oil prices are a source of concern and perhaps anxiety, but what can one expect in an economy over the long run? The articles below address these issues in a way that may prove interesting to both personal investors and economic historians.

Selected articles

Due to contractual arrangements, access to some articles may be restricted to the Stanford community, and subscribers of the "Library Databases" offered through the GSB Alumni's Lifelong Learning Program. Inclusion below does not imply University endorsement of the ideas expressed.

US growth rate is sustainable despite oil price worries and monetary laxity. TrustNet News, 5/6/05
The current level of oil prices will not undermine long-term US economic growth in the view of Sri Kumar, manager of the SG Asset Management American Growth fund. Kumar has identified three reasons why the oil price will not deflate the economy.
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Inflation Is Back On the Fed's Radar. Business Week, 4/4/2005
Observes that one result of solid growth is that inflationary pressures are building as businesses face rising costs. At the same time, the falling dollar is making imports more expensive and oil prices are up sharply. The question is: How fast must the Federal Reserve raise interest rates to assure that demand doesn't overheat, allowing rising costs to pass through into faster consumer inflation?
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The Cautious King of the Patch. Business Week, 4/4/2005
Offers a look at the strategic planning of Exxon Mobil Corporation. Comments made by Chief Executive Lee R. Raymond. Discussion of Exxon Mobil's business planning during boom and bust business cycles.
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Business cycles and natural gas prices. OPEC Review: Energy Economics & Related Issues, Mar 2005
This paper investigates the basic stylised facts of natural gas price movements using data for the period that natural gas has been traded on an organised exchange and the methodology suggested by Kydland and Prescott (1990).
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Business Cycles. FRBC. Economic Trends, Feb 2005
Reports on the business cycle in the U.S. Status of oil prices and the federal funds rate prior to the 2001 recession.
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Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries. Quarterly Review of Economics & Finance, Feb 2005
A study of the oil prices-macroeconomy relationship.
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A world awash with profits. Economist, 2/12/2005
Given how easy it has been to find something to worry about, be it the plummeting dollar, war in Iraq or the crookedness of so many corporate bosses, it has been easy to miss one extraordinarily positive economic trend: for companies around the world, on average, business has never been better. Balance sheets are strong, boardroom confidence is sky high and, most striking of all, corporate profits are at record levels.
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Economists Challenge Causal Link Between Oil Shocks And Recessions. Middle East Economic Survey, August 2004
A continued discussion of whether a causal relationship exits between oil price spikes and global recessions.
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Selected Research Papers

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