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Stanford Business magazine

 

Only 40 Years of Oil Left

Gilbert MastersIf the world had to rely on the United States for all its oil, the supply wouldn’t last very long—one year to be exact. According to calculations by Gilbert Masters, professor emeritus of civil and environmental engineering, current oil supplies in all nations combined will last about 41 years. Masters painted the sobering picture of the world’s looming energy dilemma during a three-day January conference sponsored by the Stanford Business School Alumni Association and the University’s Woods Institute for the Environment. (See related story: Ecofriendly Business)

With new oil sources not guaranteed, more companies are interested in renewable energy, including solar and wind power, and electric-powered vehicles, Masters said, citing a 2007 Morgan Stanley report that the market for environment-friendly products and technologies will reach $1 trillion by 2030. Venture capital investments in “green-tech” businesses rose to $2.4 billion in 2006, Masters said, and investments in solar power reached $1.2 billion by the end of the third quarter of 2007.

Masters advocates generating electricity for cars from sunlight, using photovoltaic technology. While a typical car using conventional fuel costs 14 cents a mile to run, a hybrid costs half that, he said. Electricity purchased during off-peak hours would cost about 1.5 cents a mile. Factor in a “smart garage” generating solar energy with photovoltaic roof tiles, and consumers would have enough power “to drive one of these plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars about 12,000 miles a year.”