Understanding, Credibility, and Setting Reasonable Goals are Key to International Negotiation Success Says Former Secretary of State George Shultz
January, 2002
STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS—The tension between India and Pakistan "doesn't lend itself to mediation right now," former Secretary of State George Shultz told a Business School audience Jan. 15. "They need to contain it, to stop aggressive actions, but the situation needs to evolve."
Shultz, whose negotiations with the Russians included their withdrawal from Afghanistan and missile deployment, said negotiators must be careful not to overrate the role of personal relationships. Danger arises when protecting the relationship becomes more important than accomplishing a goal. "The Chinese are the most skilled in the world in using relationships," he said, and will counsel the other side to not take actions that will endanger relationships. "When we approached the Chinese in the early '80s knowing this, we said 'We have lots of problems. How good a relationship we have depends on how we solve these problems.' They seemed to like that."
Shultz, who held four U.S. cabinet posts during his career, is the Jack Steele Parker professor of international economics, emeritus, at the Business School and Ford Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He spoke as part of the Business School's student-run View from the Top speakers series.
Another of his caveats for successful negotiation: Understand the constituencies of the person you're negotiating against. He told of first meeting Eduard Shevardnadze in 1985 when Shevardnadze became Soviet foreign minister under Gorbachev. "I kept asking myself how Shevardnadze and Gorbachev related to one another." An incident at a state dinner in Switzerland gave him insight. Gorbachev had launched a campaign to curb the amount of vodka drunk in Russia. Caviar, accompanied by vodka, was served at the dinner and Shevardnadze stood and gave a toast, saying "I have to come to Switzerland to get vodka these days."
"I looked over at Gorbachev and he was laughing. It clicked. They had a good relationship."
Shultz soon developed a relationship of respect with the Soviet foreign minister. The Reagan White House was negotiating with the Soviets to pull back after their invasion of Afghanistan. Because they had developed mutual respect, Shultz said, "Shevardnadze told me 'we've decided to be out of Afghanistan by the end of '88. . . . I believed him and Reagan believed him although hardly anyone else did. Our personal relationship allowed him to level with me." As a result, the United States waited out the withdrawal "and I believe we saved a few lives."
In response to a student question, Shultz said he thought the current Secretary of State Colin Powell was successfully commanding the U.S. war on terrorism. In the effort to dry up finances of Al Qaeda, Powell is seeking many international allies. For his effort to get approvals for foreign basing of U.S. military operations, "It really doesn't matter what most countries think." In the broader issue of seeking military support for our actions against terrorists, Shultz said Powell must be careful about what demands potential allies might put on us
"The war on terrorism is taking hold," said Shultz, who added that groups besides Al Qaeda are feeling the pressure. "Gerry Adams saw himself in the cross hairs and decided to call for IRA members to surrender their guns," he said.
by Cathy Castillo
