Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

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Mohsen Bayati, Sara Kwasnick, Danqi Luo, Erica Plambeck

This paper provides empirical evidence that in an ED, arrival of an additional low-acuity patient significantly increases high-acuity patients’ wait times. To estimate that effect, we propose a method motivated by queueing theory and involving...

Hamsa Bastani, Mohsen Bayati, Khashayar Khosravi

The contextual bandit literature has traditionally focused on algorithms that address the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. In particular, greedy algorithms that exploit current estimates without any exploration may be sub-optimal in general. However, exploration-free greedy algorithms...

Hamsa Bastani, Mohsen Bayati

Big data has enabled decision-makers to tailor decisions at the individual-level in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine and online advertising. This involves learning a model of decision rewards conditional on individual-specific covariates....

John Ameriks, Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Matthew D. Shapiro, Christopher Tonetti
September 2016

Individuals face significant late-in-life risks, including needing long-term care (LTC). Yet, they hold little long-term care insurance (LTCI). Using both “strategic survey questions,” which identify preferences, and stated demand questions, this paper investigates the degree...

John Ameriks, Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Matthew D. Shapiro, Christopher Tonetti
January 2015

Older wealthholders spend down assets slowly. To study this pattern, the paper introduces health-dependent utility into a model in which different preferences for bequests, expenditures when in need of long-term care (LTC), and ordinary consumption...

William J. Abernathy, John R. Moore

A central problem in planning primary health care services for a specific target population is to understand how that population reacts to the mix of services provided and the way in which the delivery system...