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Working Paper

Dynamic Learning of Patient Response Types: An Application to Treating Chronic Diseases

Dan A. Iancu, Kostas Bimpikis, Diana Negoescu, Margaret Brandeau
September152014

Currently available medication for treating many chronic diseases is often effective only for a subgroup of patients, and biomarkers accurately assessing whether an individual belongs to this subgroup do not exist. In such settings, physicians…

Journal Article

The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle

Hanno Lustig, Matthias Fleckenstein, Francis A. Longstaff
The Journal of Finance September122014 Vol. 69 Issue 5 Pages 2151-2197.

We show that the price of a Treasury bond and an inflation-swapped Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) issue exactly replicating the cash flows of the Treasury bond can differ by more than $20 per $100 notional. Treasury bonds are…

Working Paper

The Valuation of Management Control Systems in Start-Up Companies: International Field-Based Evidence

Tony Davila, George Foster, Jia Ning
September112014

The question of whether management control systems (MCS) adopted by start-up companies are valuable is examined. We investigate an international sample of start-ups, including their detailed MCS adoptions and financing histories. We find that…

Working Paper

Sovereign Debt Composition in Advanced Economies : A Historical Perspective

S.M. Ali Abbas, Mark De Broeck, Asmaa El-Ganainy, Malin Hu
September92014

We examine how the composition of public debt, broken down by currency, maturity, holder profile and marketability, has responded to major debt accumulation and consolidation episodes during 1900-2011. Covering thirteen advanced economies, we…

Working Paper

No News is Good News: Voluntary Disclosure in the Face of Litigation

Iván Marinovic, Felipe Varas
September52014

This paper studies dynamic disclosure when the firm value evolves stochastically over time. The presence of litigation risk, arising from the failure to disclose unfavorable information, not only prompts bad news disclosures but also crowds out…

Working Paper

Demographics and Entrepreneurship

Edward Lazear, James Liang, Hui Jackie) Wang
September2014

Entrepreneurship requires creativity and business acumen. Creativity may decline with age, but business skills increase with experience in high level positions. Having too many older workers in society slows entrepreneurship. Not only are older…

Journal Article

Discussion of "Equilibrium Earnings Management and Managerial Compensation in a Multiperiod Agency Setting"

Iván Marinovic
Review of Accounting Studies September2014 Vol. 19 Issue 3 Pages 1078-1085.

Dutta and Fan (Rev Account Stud, 2014), this issue, study the implications of earnings management on managerial compensation, in a two-period LEN setting. They…

Journal Article

Do Independent Directors Cause Improvements in Firm Transparency?

Christopher S. Armstrong, John E. Core, Wayne R. Guay
Journal of Financial Economics September2014 Vol. 113 Issue 3 Pages 383–403.

Although recent research documents a positive relation between corporate transparency and the proportion of independent directors, the direction of causality is unclear. We examine a regulatory shock that substantially increased board…

Journal Article

Explaining Explanations: How Legislators Explain Their Positions and How Citizens React

Christian R. Grose, Neil Malhotra, Robert Parks Van Houweling
American Journal of Political Science September2014 Vol. 00 Issue 0 Pages 1 – 20.

Legislators claim that how they explain their votes matters as much as or more than the roll calls themselves. However, few studies have systematically examined legislators’ explanations and citizen attitudes in response to these explanations. We…

Stanford Closer Look

Follow the Money: Compensation, Risk, and the Financial Crisis

David F. Larcker, Gaizka Ormazabal, Brian Tayan, Daniel J. Taylor
Stanford Closer Look Series September2014

This Closer Look illustrates the relation between executive compensation and organizational risk through the context of the financial crisis of 2008. We demonstrate that the incentives that bankers had to increase firm risk not only increased but…

Journal Article

Getting the Most out of Giving: Concretely Framing a Presocial Goal Maximizes Happiness

Melanie Rudd, Jennifer Aaker, Michael I. Norton
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology September2014 Vol. 54 Pages 11-24.

Across six field and laboratory experiments, participants given a concretely-framed prosocial goal (e.g., making someone smile, increasing recycling) felt happier after performing a goal-directed act of kindness than did those who were assigned a…

Journal Article

Hierarchy, Leadership, and Construal Fit

Yair Berson, Nir Halevy
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied September2014 Vol. 20 Issue 3 Pages 232-246.

Three studies tested the hypothesis, derived from construal-level theory, that hierarchical distance between leaders and followers moderates the effectiveness of leader behaviors such that abstract behaviors produce more positive outcomes when…

Working Paper

Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy

Benjamin J. Keys, Tomasz Piskorski, Amit Seru, Vincent W. Yao
September2014

This paper investigates the impact of lower mortgage rates on household balance sheets and other economic outcomes during the housing crisis. We use proprietary loan-level panel data matched to consumer credit records using borrowers’ Social…

Journal Article

Non-Diversifiable Volatility Risk and Risk Premiums at Earnings Announcements

Mary E. Barth, Eric C. So
The Accounting Review September2014 Vol. 89 Issue 5 Pages 1579-1607.

This study seeks to determine whether earnings announcements pose non-diversifiable volatility risk that commands a risk premium. We find that investors anticipate some earnings announcements to convey news that increases…

Journal Article

Optimal Contracts with Performance Manipulation

Anne Beyer, Iván Marinovic, Ilan Guttman
Journal of Accounting Research September2014 Vol. 52 Issue 4 Pages 817-847.

We study optimal compensation contracts that (1) are designed to address a joint moral hazard and adverse selection problem and that (2) are based on performance measures, which may be manipulated by the agent at a cost. In the model, a manager…

Journal Article

A Relationship with God? Connecting with the Divine to Assuage Fears of Interpersonal Rejection

Kristin Laurin, Karina Schumann, John G. Holmes
Social Psychological & Personality Science September2014 Vol. 5 Issue 7 Pages 777-785.

We examine the possibility that people can leverage their “relationship” with God as a stand-in for interpersonal relationships. More specifically, we hypothesize that people will seek closeness with the divine when facing the threat of…

Journal Article

Religion and Punishment: Opposing Influences of Orthopraxy and Orthodoxy on Reactions to Unintentional Acts

Kristin Laurin, Jason E. Plaks
Social Psychological & Personality Science September2014 Vol. 5 Issue 7 Pages 835-843.

We hypothesize that two distinct facets of religiosity—orthodoxy (an emphasis on belief) and orthopraxy (an emphasis on behavior)—predict differential sensitivity to an actor’s intent when making moral judgments. Participants judged actors who…

Journal Article

The Primal Mark: How the Beginning Shapes the End in the Development of Creative Ideas

Justin M. Berg
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes September2014 Vol. 125 Issue 1 Pages 1-17.

While creative ideas are defined as both novel and useful, novelty and usefulness often diverge, making it difficult to develop ideas that are high in both. To explain this tradeoff between novelty and usefulness and how it can be overcome, this…

Journal Article

Aggregate Investment and Investor Sentiment

Salman Arif, Charles M. C. Lee
Review of Financial Studies August142014 Vol. 27 Issue 11 Pages 3241-3279.

Using bottom-up information from corporate financial statements, we examine the relation between aggregate investment, future equity returns, and investor sentiment. Consistent with the business cycle literature, corporate investments peak during…

Working Paper

Measuring Skill in the Mutual Fund Industry

Jonathan B. Berk, Jules H. van Binsbergen
August142014

Using the value that a mutual fund extracts from capital markets as the measure of skill, we find that the average mutual fund has used this skill to generate about $3.2 million per year. We document large cross-sectional differences in skill…