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Confidence Intervals for Policy Evaluation in Adaptive Experiments
Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials. Inferential…
Elite Party Cues Increase Vaccination Intentions among Republicans
Overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic requires motivating the vast majority of Americans to be vaccinated. However, vaccination rates have become politically polarized and a substantial proportion of Republicans have remained vaccine-hesitant for…
Are CEOs’ Purchases More Profitable than They Appear?
Little is known about why CEOs voluntarily purchase shares of their firm other than to earn direct profits. Since CEOs are risk-averse, undiversified, and face…
Clean Energy Technologies: Dynamics of Cost and Price
The rapid transition to a decarbonized energy economy is widely believed to hinge on the rate of cost improvements for certain clean energy technologies, in particular renewable power and energy storage. This paper adopts the classical learning-…
Fearless Woman: Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation
Women are less financially literate than men. It is unclear whether this gap reflects a lack of knowledge or, rather, a lack of confidence. Our survey experiment shows that women tend to disproportionately respond “do not know” to questions…
Financial Flexibility and Corporate Employment
We study the role of financial flexibility on COVID-19 employment actions. Using daily data from March through May 2020 for 354 of the largest U.S. employers, we find that firms facing a negative demand shock were 28.8 percentage points more…
Interference, Bias, and Variance in Two-Sided Marketplace Experimentation: Guidance for Practitioners
Two-sided marketplace platforms often run experiments to test the effect of an intervention before launching it platform-wide. A typical approach is to randomize individuals into the treatment group, which receives the intervention, and the…
Media Influence on Vote Choices: Unemployment News and Incumbents’ Electoral Prospects
How does news about the economy influence voting decisions? We isolate the effect of the information environment from the effect of change in the underlying economic conditions themselves by taking advantage of left‐digit bias…
Overlap in Observational Studies with High-Dimensional Covariates
Estimating causal effects under exogeneity hinges on two key assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. Researchers often argue that unconfoundedness is more plausible…
Private Communication Among Competitors and Public Disclosure
I study how private communication among competitors affects their public disclosures. Theory suggests that competing firms can use public disclosure to coordinate, and predicts less public disclosure when there is more private communication.…
Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens
Cross-border capital flows are often opaque. Global firms commonly finance themselves through foreign subsidiaries, including shell companies in tax havens, making it difficult to observe the true economic linkages between investors and borrowers…
Review Article: Perspectives on the Future of Asset Pricing
The field of asset pricing is a rich and diverse discipline that has contributed to many areas of discourse, including those of fundamental importance to policy makers, investors, and households. As we look ahead during a time of substantial…
The Ambiguity of Earnings Announcements
We study the consequences of misreporting in settings where ambiguity-averse investors face uncertainty about two aspects of the firm: its productivity and the weakness of its reporting system. We show that the joint presence of these two sources…
The Innovation Consequences of Mandatory Patent Disclosures
We investigate the effect of patent disclosures on corporate innovation. Using the American Inventor’s Protection Act (AIPA) as a shock that increased patent disclosures, we find an increase in innovation for firms whose rivals…
Tractable Contextual Bandits Beyond Realizability
Tractable contextual bandit algorithms often rely on the realizability assumption — i.e., that the true expected reward model belongs to a known class, such as linear functions. In this work, we present a tractable bandit algorithm that is not…
Undermining your case to enhance your impact: A framework for understanding the effects of acts of receptiveness in persuasion
Past research has uncovered actions that would seem to undermine but in fact frequently enhance persuasion. For example, expressing doubt about one’s view or presenting arguments against it would seem to weaken one’s case, but can sometimes…
When Guiding Principles Do Not Guide: The Moderating Effects of Cultural Tightness on Value-Behavior Links
Ample research documented the effects of guiding principles in people’s lives, as reflected in personal values, on a variety of behaviors. But do these principles universally guide behaviors across all cultural contexts? To address this question…
Why Are Grandiose Narcissists More Effective at Organizational Politics? Means, Motive, and Opportunity
Research over the past decade has shown that grandiose narcissists are often successful at attaining leadership positions in organizations. However, there is no evidence that narcissists lead higher performing firms, and while they see themselves…
Reducing Administrative Costs in U.S. Health Care: Assessing Single Payer and Its Alternatives
Excess administrative costs in the US health care system are routinely referenced as a justification for comprehensive reform. While there is agreement that these costs are too high, there is little understanding of what generates administrative…
The Association between Alpha-1 Adrenergic Receptor Antagonists and In-Hospital Mortality from COVID-19
Effective therapies for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are urgently needed, and pre-clinical data suggest alpha-1 adrenergic receptor antagonists (α1-AR antagonists) may be effective in reducing mortality related to hyperinflammation…