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The Economic Dynamics of Competing Power Generation Sources
Competing power generation sources have experienced considerable shifts in both their revenue potential and their costs in recent years. Here we introduce the concept…
The Responsiveness of Medicaid Spending to the Federal Subsidy
Although economic theory suggests that the federal government can influence spending by states through subsidies to programs that states operate, no recent work has quantified the magnitude of this effect for Medicaid, the largest program of this…
A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties
The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the…
Overbooking with Bounded Loss
We study a classic problem in revenue management: quantity-based, single-resource revenue management with no-shows. In this problem, a firm observes a sequence of T customers requesting a service. Each arrival is drawn independently from…
Advertising Media and Target Audience Optimization via High-dimensional Bandits
We present a data-driven algorithm that advertisers can use to automate their digital ad-campaigns at online publishers. The algorithm enables the advertiser to search across available target audiences and ad-media to find the best possible…
Analysis of the Genealogy Process in Forensic Genetic Genealogy
Chosen by the JFS Associate Editors and Editor-in-Chief as a 2022 JFS Noteworthy Article.
The genealogy process is typically the most time-consuming part of — and a limiting factor in the success of — forensic genetic genealogy,…
Authenticity Among Distilleries: Signaling, Transparency and Essence
Organizations benefit when they are perceived as authentic. Yet, explanations for this effect typically rely on context-specific attributions that can carry different meanings for different people. Here we develop some elements of a broader…
Belonging: The Science of Creating Connection and Bridging Divides
We live in enormously polarized times. From politics to race, religion, gender, and class, division runs rampant. In 2020, 40 percent of each political party said that supporters of the opposing party were “downright evil.” In 2019, hate crimes…
Buy Now Pay (Pain?) Later
“Buy Now Pay Later” (BNPL) is a largely unregulated FinTech innovation that provides consumers with easy access to credit for specific retail purchases. The BNPL market is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2025, but we know little about the…
Comment on: “Confidence Intervals for Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Analysis” by Ignatiadis and Wager
I want to congratulate Nikolaos Ignatiadis and Stefan Wager on a very stimulating paper on a timely and important topic. They discuss empirical Bayes procedures and propose new methods for constructing robust confidence intervals. The proposed…
Does Voluntary Non-Earnings Disclosure Substitute for Redacted Proprietary Contract Information?
This study finds that voluntary non-earnings disclosures substitute for redacted proprietary contract information. When firms redact contract information, they provide more voluntary disclosures and have higher information uncertainty and…
Freedom and Constraint in Digital Environments: Implications for the Self
We evaluate how features of the digital environment free or constrain the self. Based on the current empirical literature, we argue that modern technological features, such as predictive algorithms and tracking tools, pose four potential…
Investigating Complementarities in Subscription Software Usage Using Advertising Experiments
In this study, we causally examine complementarity in usage across a set of related software products from a multi-product firm. Digital contexts are characterized by little price variation, bundled pricing plans, and infrequent purchase or…
Learner-Private Convex Optimization
Convex optimization with feedback is a framework where a learner relies on iterative queries and feedback to arrive at the minimizer of a convex function. It has gained considerable popularity thanks to its scalability in large-scale optimization…
New Venture Creation: A Drift-Variance Diffusion Control Model
We model the creation of a new venture with a novel drift-variance diffusion control framework in which the state of the venture is captured by a diffusion process. The entrepreneur creating the venture chooses costly controls, which determine…
One-Hit Wonders versus Hit Makers: Sustaining Success in Creative Industries
Creative industries produce many one-hit wonders who struggle to repeat their initial success and fewer hit makers who sustain success over time. To develop theory on the role of creativity in driving sustained market success, I…
Predicting Cellular Responses with Variational Causal Inference and Refined Relational Information
Predicting the responses of a cell under perturbations may bring important benefits to drug discovery and personalized therapeutics. In this work, we propose a novel graph variational Bayesian causal inference framework to predict a cell’s gene…
Real Effects of Supplying Safe Private Money
Privately issued money often bears devaluation risk that create monetary transaction frictions. We evaluate the real effects of supplying a new type of safe money in the historical context of the U.S. in 1863. We instrument for the change in…
Rejoinder: Confidence Intervals for Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Analysis
In our article, we introduced two general methods for conducting inference for empirical Bayes estimands. The discussants have contributed to our work by clarifying and raising important issues regarding our manuscript, suggesting further…
A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats: Group Performance and Intragroup Status
Early theories of status dynamics in small groups portrayed intragroup status as a limited resource — as the status of one group member rises, the status of another must fall. Recent theorizing presents an alternative view: that the amount of…