Publications

We analyze a fundamental dilemma and time-inconsistency problem facing climate-concerned producers of natural gas. In the short term, it is tempting to produce more to outcompete coal. When this policy is anticipated, however, investments in…

We use equity returns to construct a time-varying measure of the zero-beta interest rate: the expected return of a stock portfolio orthogonal to the stochastic discount factor. In contrast to safe rates, the zero-beta rate fits the aggregate…

Social class is more than an economic divide; it engenders distinct cultural patterns. Building on tightness-looseness theory, we identify a critical yet overlooked dimension of within-society cultural variation across social class contexts: the…

We describe patterns of licit handgun acquisitions before (January 2017–February 2020) and during (March 2020–September 2021) the COVID-19 pandemic using administrative records from California. Handgun acquisitions doubled soon after the pandemic…

Severe congestion in U.S. power grid interconnection queues has slowed the deployment of new generation. Recent operational reforms propose cluster studies and higher financial deposits to improve throughput, yet operational trade-offs remain…

Multiarmed bandit (MAB) algorithms are efficient approaches to reduce the opportunity cost of online experimentation and are used by companies to find the best product from periodically refreshed product catalogs. However, these algorithms face…

This paper provides an equilibrium model of discovery as strategic search. Both parties select search intensities where the quantity and quality of evidence uncovered are stochastic. Discovery intensity leads to both own-party costs as well as…

Introduction

Employer-sponsored health insurance covers over 60% of the U.S. population under age 65 and represents a significant expense for employers, yet employees’ views on benefit design remain understudied.

Methods

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Congenital heart defects (CHDs) affect approximately 240,000 newborns annually in India, where lifesaving surgical interventions are inaccessible and unaffordable for rural populations. The objective of this project was to identify opportunities…

Populism has been on the rise, posing a threat to liberal democracy. Existing evidence suggests that globalization, economic shocks, and concerns over cultural change increase support for populist agendas. Yet less is known about interventions…

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) marked the first time in 3 decades that material changes were made to the corporate tax code of the United States. Following the method of Auerbach and Hassett (…

In this Closer Look, we examine the formal and informal advice networks that corporate directors rely on to improve decision making and performance. We find directors are active consumers of advice. They rely on paid advisors particularly in…

“Notice and choice” is a mainstay of policies designed to safeguard consumer privacy. This paper investigates distortions in consumer behavior when faced with notice and choice, which may limit the ability of consumers to safeguard their privacy…

We quantify the impact of the loss of reserve currency status in goods and asset markets. In goods markets, the loss of seigniorage (1% of GDP per annum) makes American households spend less, mostly on U.S. goods, leaving an excess supply of U.S…

This paper provides early evidence on the integration and impact of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) in accounting at the accountant and task levels. Using survey data from 277 professional accountants, we document substantial…

Many large-scale transportation systems rely on decision-makers who independently allocate resources across space and time. While decentralization fosters competition, it can also generate substantial operational inefficiencies. We study this…

Care coordination is increasingly evidenced to improve outcomes for patients with complex conditions. Accordingly, the Veterans Health Administration (VA) is expanding care coordination for ~1.5 million Veterans nationally at the highest risk for…

This paper studies estimation of causal effects in a panel data setting. We introduce a new estimator, the Triply Robust Panel (TROP) estimator, that combines (𝑖) a flexible model for the potential outcomes based on a low-rank factor structure on…

In the last two decades, the euro area was hit by multiple crises. Fiscal and monetary emergency actions broke important constraints and expectations set by the euro’s founding principles. Several euro countries broke fiscal rules. As politicians…