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Make Decisions with a VC Mindset
Venture capitalists’ unique approach to investment and innovation has played a pivotal role in launching one-fifth of the largest U.S. public companies. And three-quarters of the largest U.S. companies founded in the past 50 years would not have…
Measuring the Market for Legal Firearms
The Massachusetts Firearms Records Bureau recently published administrative data covering the universe of legal firearm transactions in the state. We use these data to validate state-level background checks as a proxy for firearm transactions and…
Politicians’ Use of National Identity Rhetoric on Social Media Predicts Engagement and Electoral Success
Politicians invest heavily in social media to amplify narratives about their nations, but the effectiveness of such approaches remains unclear. Analyzing 758,222 posts from US and UK politicians on X (formerly Twitter), we found that right-wing…
Prediction-Driven Surge Planning with Application to Emergency Department Nurse Staffing
Determining emergency department (ED) nurse staffing decisions to balance quality of service and staffing costs can be extremely challenging, especially when there is a high level of uncertainty in patient demand. Increasing data availability and…
Production Complementarity and Information Transmission Across Industries
Economic theory suggests that production complementarity is an important driver of sectoral co-movements and business cycle…
Singular Control of (Reflected) Brownian Motion: A Computational Method Suitable for Queueing Applications
Motivated by applications in queueing theory, we consider a class of singular stochastic control problems whose state space is the d-dimensional positive orthant. The original problem is approximated by a drift control problem, to which…
Strategic Behavior with Tight, Loose, and Polarized Norms
Descriptive norms, the behavior of other individuals in one’s reference group, play a key role in shaping individual decisions in managerial contexts and beyond. Organizations are increasingly using information about descriptive norms to nudge…
The Effects of Facebook and Instagram on the 2020 Election: A Deactivation Experiment
We study the effect of Facebook and Instagram access on political beliefs, attitudes, and behavior by randomizing a subset of 19,857 Facebook users and 15,585 Instagram users to deactivate their accounts for 6 wk before the 2020 U.S. election. We…
The Impact of Online Competition on Local Newspapers: Evidence from the Introduction of Craigslist
How does competition from online platforms affect the organization, performance, and editorial choices of newspapers? What are the implications of these changes for the information voters are exposed to and for their political choices? We study…
Towards Costless Model Selection in Contextual Bandits: A Bias-Variance Perspective
Model selection in supervised learning provides costless guarantees as if the model that best balances bias and variance was known a priori. We study the feasibility of similar guarantees for cumulative regret minimization in the stochastic…
Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Market Approach with Heterogeneous Firms: Further Results
This paper estimates state corporate tax incidence using new data and methods for estimating the effects on profits. Extending Suárez Serrato and Zidar (2016), we develop two identification approaches that use the effects on incumbent firm labor…
When the One True Faith Trumps All: Low Religious Diversity, Religious Intolerance, and Science Denial
Past theories have linked science denial to religiosity but have not explained its geographic variability. We hypothesize that it springs not only from religious intensity but also from religious intolerance, which depends greatly on the…
Material Selection to Improve Sustainability in the Apparel Industry
The large amounts of resources required for producing the materials our garments are made of and the significant levels of pollution associated with textile and garment production and disposal are some of the major environmental concerns…
Book Value Risk Management of Banks: Limited Hedging, HTM Accounting, and Rising Interest Rates
In the face of rising interest rates in 2022, banks mitigated interest rate exposure of the accounting value of their assets but left the vast majority of their long-duration assets exposed to interest rate risk. Data from call reports and SEC…
Causal Inference in the Social Sciences
Knowledge of causal effects is of great importance to decision makers in a wide variety of settings. In many cases, however, these causal effects are not known to the decision makers and need to be estimated from data. This fundamental problem…
ChatGPT, MD: How AI-Empowered Patients & Doctors Can Take Back Control of American Medicine
Doctors and patients have lost control of American medicine. Generative AI can put the power back in their hands, save millions of lives, and restore the doctor-patient relationship.
Welcome to ChatGPT, MD. In this unique collaboration,…
Contract Design in Influencer Marketing
In influencer marketing, the differing incentives of advertisers and influencers necessitate a delicate balance between control and creativity. Investigating this trade-off, we explore the impact of contractual constraints on advertiser outcomes…
Correcting Misperceptions of the Material Benefits Associated with Union Membership Increases Americans’ Interest in Joining Unions
How accurate are Americans’ perceptions of the material benefits associated with union membership, and do these perceptions influence their support for, and interest in joining, unions? We explore these questions in a preregistered, survey…
Diversity Washing
We provide large-sample evidence on whether U.S. publicly traded corporations use voluntary disclosures about their commitments to employee diversity opportunistically. We document significant discrepancies between companies’ external stances on…
Large Language Models for Preventing Medication Direction Errors in Online Pharmacies
Errors in pharmacy medication directions, such as incorrect instructions for dosage or frequency, can increase patient safety risk substantially by raising the chances of adverse drug events. This study explores how integrating domain knowledge…