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Assessing the Gains from E-Commerce
E-commerce represents a rapidly growing share of consumer spending in the United States. We use transactions-level data on credit and debit cards from Visa, Inc. between 2007 and 2017 to quantify the resulting consumer surplus. We estimate e-…
Balancing Act: Protecting Privacy, Protecting Competition
A large majority of Americans — 81 percent — feel a lack of control over their personal data and indicate they are concerned that the risks posed by corporate data collection outweigh any benefits. Governments and regulators are responding to…
Battling the Coronavirus Infodemic Among Social Media Users in Africa
During a global pandemic, how can we best prompt social media users to demonstrate discernment in sharing information online? We ran a contextual adaptive experiment on Facebook Messenger with users in Kenya and Nigeria and tested 40 combinations…
Boosting Sales and Customer Welfare from Premade Foods (Let the Freshest Chicken Fly Off the Shelf First)
[Submitted to Management Science.]
This paper examines a grocery retailer’s management of a premade food product. The retailer’s goal is to maximize a weighted sum of direct profit and customer welfare. Multiple items of the…
Culture in Large and Small Organizations: Perceptions, Beliefs and Experiences
We attempt here to make some progress on developing a fuller understanding of the relationship between organizational size and culture. In doing so, we report on a survey we administered to a sample of full-time workers (men and women) in the US…
A Deep-Learning Model of Prescient Ideas Demonstrates That They Emerge from the Periphery
Where do prescient ideas — those that initially challenge conventional assumptions but later achieve widespread acceptance — come from? Although their outcomes in the form of technical innovation are readily observed, the underlying ideas that…
Digital Public Health Interventions at Scale: The Impact of Social Media Advertising on Beliefs and Outcomes Related to COVID Vaccines
Public health organizations increasingly use social media advertising campaigns in pursuit of public health goals. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of about $40 million of social media advertisements that were run and experimentally tested…
Epidemic Responses under Uncertainty
We examine how policymakers react to a pandemic with uncertainty around key epidemiological and economic policy parameters by embedding a macroeconomic SIR model in a robust control framework. Uncertainty about disease virulence and severity…
Evolution in Value Relevance of Accounting Information
We address how value relevance of accounting information evolved as the new economy developed. Prior research concludes accounting information — primarily earnings — has lost relevance. We consider more accounting items and find no decline in…
Getting Unstuck: The Effects of Growth Mindsets about the Self and Job on Happiness at Work
Past research on growth mindsets has focused on the benefits of viewing the self as flexible rather than fixed. We propose that employees can make more substantial agentic changes to their work experiences if they also hold growth mindsets about…
Hey Siri, I Love You: People Feel More Attached to Gendered Technology
Debate abounds regarding the role that various technologies play in the reification of gender stereotypes and norms. We demonstrate that although assigning technology a male or female gender (i.e., gendering technology) increases …
Homemade Foreign Trading
Using cross-border holding data from all custodians in China’s Stock Connect, we provide evidence that Chinese mainland insiders tend to evade the see-through surveillance by round-tripping via the Stock Connect program. After the regulatory…
How Should We Think about Replicating Observational Studies? A Reply to Fowler and Montagnes
In their reply to our article, “Irrelevant Events and Voting Behavior,” Fowler and Montagnes reanalyze our replication study of college football’s effect on election outcomes. Although we agree with Fowler and Montagnes that the evidence…
How Tilly's WUNC Works: Bystander Evaluations of Social Movement Signals Lead to Mobilization
Social movements must mobilize participation from bystanders to survive, yet there is little research on how bystanders’ evaluations of social movements predict their likelihood to join. Charles Tilly offered a four-part theoretical “scorecard”…
Investor Composition and Overreaction
Do stock price run-ups predictably revert? We develop a model of financial markets with two types of investors: rational investors and “oversensitive” investors who react excessively to salient public news. The model yields a summary statistic…
Irrelevant Events and Voting Behavior: Replications Using Principles from Open Science
How well do voters hold politicians accountable? Although a long-standing research tradition claims that elections are effective tools for the sanctioning and selection of leaders, a more recent literature argues that voters often reward and…
Offline Multi-Action Policy Learning: Generalization and Optimization
In many settings, a decision maker wishes to learn a rule, or policy, that maps from observable characteristics of an individual to an action. Examples include selecting offers, prices, advertisements, or emails to send to consumers, choosing a…
Organizational Capacity and Project Dynamics
This paper provides a dynamic theory of the effects of organizational capacity on public policy. Consistent with prevailing accounts, a bureaucratic organization with higher capacity, i.e., a better ability to get things done, is more likely to…
Pledge-And-Review Bargaining
This paper presents a novel dynamic bargaining game where every party is proposing only its own contribution, before all pledges must be unanimously approved. I show that, with uncertain tolerance for delay, each equilibrium pledge maximizes an…
Social Norms and Behavior Change: The Interdisciplinary Research Frontier
Where there is behavior there are social norms. Social norms are a key feature of societies, and their adherence is crucial to sustaining social order. This special issue brings together research at the interdisciplinary research frontier…