Publications

This article analyzes the results of the 2024 ADIA Lab Causal Discovery Challenge, a large-scale competition designed to evaluate whether machine learning methods can infer causal roles from observational data when ground-truth causal structures…

The evolutionary view posits that the intraorganizational ecology of strategy-making comprises two distinct types of strategic action. Induced strategic action involves initiatives on the part of operational and middle-level managers that fit…

People generally believe more is better in persuasion, for good reason. Past research has shown that providing more arguments can enhance a message’s persuasiveness. In contrast, we demonstrate that increasing the number of…

We study whether AI methods applied to large-scale portfolio holdings data can improve financial regulation. We build a state-of-the-art, graph-based deep learning model tailored to security-level data on the holdings of financial intermediaries…

Governments use their countries’ economic strength from financial and trade relationships to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. We provide a model of the sources of geoeconomic power and how it is wielded. The source of this power is the…

This paper studies gun-use regulation and firearm mortality. I gather historical schedules of deer hunting season in North Carolina and Virginia and pair them with morgue records at county-day frequency. Hunters increase firearm use during deer…

While large language models (LLMs) achieve near-perfect scores on medical licensing exams, these evaluations inadequately reflect the complexity and diversity of real-world clinical practice. Here we introduce MedHELM, an extensible evaluation…

Governments around the world have recently adopted policy support programs for hydrogen, tying the level of support to the assessed carbon intensity of the hydrogen produced. Here we compare alternative carbon accounting rules for determining the…

Problem Definition: Bangladesh suffers from massive lead emissions from its circular Lead-Acid Battery (LAB)

industry. Informal smelting of scrap lead from Used Lead-Acid Batteries (ULAB) is especially emission-intensive…

Corporate governance has become a well-discussed and controversial topic among corporations, shareholders, and the general public. However, the debate over what constitutes “good governance” often lacks structure, making it difficult for…

Over four centuries, specific currencies have dominated global debt denomination. We present a liquidity-based theory that explains the centrality of the Dutch florin, British pound, and US dollar, and that rationalizes features of the…

Background

A frequent, preventable cause of diagnostic errors involves failure to follow up on…

This study revisits the widely accepted finding that paying with cash is more painful than paying with card by conducting the first systematic mega-replication (including 13 large-scale preregistered replications; a total of 32,371 participants,…

How can humans make sense of the rapid takeoff of artificial intelligence (AI)? We studied the sensemaking dynamics of AI through an open-ended, mixed-methods study with computational text analysis of millions of AI-related newspaper articles and…

This article reviews recent research on monetary policy transmission through banks and the broader financial intermediation sector, and its implications for financial stability. Traditional banks remain fragile due to high leverage and maturity…

Pronoun sharing has become a common inclusion practice in U.S. schools and workplaces. Drawing on normative discrimination theories, however, we predict that pronoun sharing can lead to negative evaluations of people who share nonconventional…

The time at which renewable (e.g., solar or wind) energy resources produce electricity cannot generally be controlled. In many settings, however, consumers have some flexibility in their energy consumption needs, and there is growing interest in…

Persuasion is a powerful device for shaping people’s attitudes and actions. Recent work has begun to examine who persuaders target with their persuasive efforts. The current work explores how persuaders think about intermediaries—individuals who…

Background and Objective

Long COVID (LC) refers to persistent symptoms after acute COVID-19 infection, which may persist for months or years. LC affects millions of people globally, with substantial impacts on quality of life, employment…