Publications

The government budget constraint ties the market value of government debt to the expected present discounted value of fiscal surpluses. We find evidence that U.S. Treasury investors fail to impose this no-arbitrage restriction in the United…

Randomized controlled trials are often run in settings with many subpopulations that may have differential benefits from the treatment being evaluated. We consider the problem of sample selection, i.e., whom to enroll in a randomized trial, such…

Neuraxial analgesia provides effective pain relief during labor. However, it is unclear whether neuraxial analgesia prevalence differs across U.S. hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess hospital variation in neuraxial analgesia prevalence…

Over the past 50 years, consumer researchers have presented extensive evidence that consumer preference can be swayed by the decision context, particularly the configuration of the choice set. Importantly, behavioral research on context effects…

While agency theory has strongly influenced real-world compensation plans, most observed compensation plans are not explicit about their economic assumptions. In this study, we derive closed-form expressions to infer the cost of effort, the…

Background and Aims

The progress of artificial intelligence (AI) in endoscopy is at a crossroads. The positive results of randomized controlled trials of computer-aided detection (CADe) have not been replicated in multiple pragmatic CADe…

We study a financial inclusion policy targeting Brazilian cities with low bank branch coverage using data on the universe of employees from 2000–2014. The policy leads to bank entry and to similar increases in both deposits and lending. It also…

Standard Bayesians’ beliefs converge when they receive the same piece of new information. However, when agents initially disagree and have uncertainty about the precision of a signal, their disagreement might instead increase, despite receiving…

In recent decades, diversity training has become a frequently used tool in efforts to reduce bias and increase inclusion in organizations. However, the effectiveness of diversity training has been called into question. The content and methods of…

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on…

Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices and sometimes for free. Such “nonmarket” mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with…

International trade and natural resource exploitation interact in multiple ways. This paper first presents a dynamic game in which the South (S) exploits (e.g., deforests) in order to export (e.g., lumber and agricultural products). Because of…

Fixed effects (FE) have emerged as a ubiquitous and powerful tool for eliminating unwanted variation in observational accounting studies. Unwanted variation is plentiful in accounting research because we often use rich data to test precise…

A higher U.S. government debt/output ratio does not forecast higher surpluses or lower returns on Treasurys in the future. Neither future cash flows nor discount rates account for the variation in the current debt/output ratio. The market…

Traditional dynamic programming requires a mathematical model of the transition function for the state vector. Leveraging reinforcement learning techniques, we develop a framework to solve dynamic optimization problems that does not require…

This paper compares the affordability of owner-occupied housing across US cities. We apply a new method for imputing the rental value of owner-occupied housing developed in Diamond and Diamond (2024) that accounts for unobserved house quality. On…

In November 2018, a Boeing 737 MAX airplane crashed off the coast of Indonesia, killing all 189 passengers and crew members. Four months later, a second 737 MAX flying from Ethiopia to Nairobi crashed, killing 157 individuals. In this Closer Look…

State and federal governments invest millions of dollars in providing accurate and relevant information on expected outcomes to students pursuing higher education, but whether such information targets what students value about college is unclear…

We formulate the problem of constructing multiple simultaneously valid confidence intervals (CIs) as estimating a high probability upper bound on the maximum error for a class/set of estimate-estimand-error tuples, and refer to this as the error…

Democratic values are eroding just as citizens perceive increasing corruption, with numerous cases implicating the highest-level politicians. Could perceived increases in apex corruption be weakening democracy? We first present event study…