Bayesian Inference Does Not Lead You Astray…on Average

Bayesian Inference Does Not Lead You Astray…on Average

By
Alejandro Francetich, David M. Kreps
Economic Letters. December
2014, Vol. 125, Issue 3, Pages 444-446

The expected value of the log of a Bayesian’s posterior assessment of the true state of nature, computed under the probability law of the true state, is always at least as large as the log of the prior.