Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

Evan J. Soltas, David Broockman
April 29, 2017

We exploit a natural experiment to plausibly identify taste-based racial and ethnic discrimination in elections. In Illinois Republican presidential primaries, voters vote for delegate candidates bound to particular presidential candidates. Delegate candidates’ names signal their...

Mary E. Barth, Kurt H. Gee, Doron Isreali, Ron Kasznik
April 27, 2017

We address whether firms manage stock prices in anticipation of share issuances. A literature in finance attributes negative returns following share issuances to market timing, whereas studies in accounting interpret similar return patterns as evidence...

Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Daniel J. Hopkins, Teppei Yamamoto
April 26, 2017

Recent years have seen a renaissance of conjoint survey designs within social science. To date, however, researchers have lacked guidance on how many attributes they can include within conjoint profiles before survey satisficing leads to...

Hanno Lustig, Ralph S.J. Koijen, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
April 24, 2017

We show that bond factors, which predict future U.S. economic activity at business cycle horizons, are priced in the cross-section of U.S. stock returns. High book-to-market stocks have larger exposures to these bond factors than...

Douglas Ahler, David Broockman
April 24, 2017

Many argue for political reforms intended to resolve apparent disjunctures between politicians’ ideologically polarized policy positions and citizens less-polarized policy preferences. Here we show such apparent disjunctures can arise even when politicians represent their constituencies...

Katherine Casey
March 30, 2017

Voting is fundamentally a forecasting problem: voters try to predict future performance in office based on incomplete information about candidates. Forecast inputs combine observable professional qualifications with more subjective assessments of confidence and trustworthiness. In...

Aaron M. Garvey, Meg Meloy, Baba Shiv
March 29, 2017

This research explores how the experience of a jilt — the anticipation and subsequent inaccessibility of a highly desirable, aspirant option — influences preference for incumbent and non-incumbent options. We conceptualize jilting as a multi-stage...

David F. Larcker, Brian Tayan
March 28, 2017

Many observers consider the most important responsibility of the board of directors its responsibility to hire and fire the CEO. To this end, an interesting situation arises when a CEO resigns and the board chooses...

Brett S. Green, Brendan Daley, Victoria Vanasco
March 19, 2017

We explore the effect of credit ratings on loan origination and securitization. The model involves two stages: first, banks decide whether to originate a given loan pool or not, and obtain private information about the...

Mary E. Barth, Ken Li, Charles G. McClure
March 14, 2017

We find the value relevance of accounting information has increased between 1962 and 2014. The information we consider comprises twelve accounting amounts plus ten industry indicators. Regarding individual accounting amounts, we find that operating cash...

David Broockman, Christopher Skovron
March 9, 2017

The conservative asymmetry of elite polarization and the right-skewed “democratic deficit”—wherein policy is more conservative than majorities prefer on average—represent significant puzzles. We argue that such breakdowns in aggregate representation can arise because politicians systematically...

Lisa De Simone, Joseph D. Piotroski, Rimmy E. Tomy
March 3, 2017

We examine whether anticipation of Congress enacting a reduction in repatriation taxes affects the amount of cash U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) hold overseas.  Prior papers have focused on which U.S. MNCs repatriated foreign cash and...

Gabriel Doyle, Amir Goldberg, Sameer B. Srivastava, Michael C. Frank
March 1, 2017

Cultural fit is widely believed to affect the success of individuals and the groups to which they belong. Yet

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Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, Amit Seru
March 2017

We study the rise of fintech and non-fintech shadow banks in the residential lending market. The market share of shadow banks in the mortgage market has nearly tripled from 2007-2015. Shadow banks gained a larger...

Mark L. Egan, Gregor Matvos, Amit Seru
March 2017

We examine gender discrimination in the financial advisory industry. We study a less salient mechanism for discrimination, firm discipline following missteps. There are substantial differences in the punishment of misconduct across genders. Although both female...

Salman Arif, Azi Ben-Rephael, Charles M. C. Lee
February 24, 2017

Daily directional trading by mutual funds (MFs) is highly-persistent and price-destabilizing, leading to return reversals lasting months.  This effect is distinct from the “flow-induced trading” phenomenon in prior studies.  At the same time, short-sale volume...

Charles M. C. Lee, Ken Li
February 14, 2017

Predicted stock issuers (PSIs) are firms with expected “high-investment and low-profit” (HILP) profiles that earn unusually low returns.  Over a 36-year period (1978-2013), average returns to top-decile PSIs are indistinguishable from Treasury yields.  We show...

Susan Athey, Christian Catalini, Catherine E. Tucker
February 13, 2017

This paper uses data from the MIT digital currency experiment to shed light on consumer behavior regarding commercial, public and government surveillance. The setting allows us to explore the apparent contradiction that many cryptocurrencies offer...

Susan Athey, Stefan Wager
February 2017

There has been considerable interest across several fields in methods that reduce the problem of learning good treatment assignment policies to the problem of accurate policy evaluation. Given a class of candidate policies, these methods...

Ilan Guttman, Iván Marinovic
January 20, 2017

Empirical and survey evidence suggest that firms often manipulate reported numbers to avoid debt covenant violations. The theoretical literature, by and large, has ignored the consequences of this phenomenon on debt contracting. Departing from a...