Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

Darrell Duffie, Samuel Antill
August 6, 2019

In our modeled setting, we show that the now-common practice of size discovery detracts from overall Financial market efficiency. A continually operating exchange uses double auctions to discover prices and clear markets. At each of...

Paulo Somaini
July 9, 2019

This paper provides a positive identification result for first-price procurement models with asymmetric bidders, statistically dependent private signals,
and interdependent costs. When bidders are risk neutral, the model’s payoff-relevant primitives are: (i) the joint...

David M. Kreps, Walter Schachermayer
July 2019

We examine Kreps’ (2019) conjecture that optimal expected utility in the classic Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) economy is the limit of optimal expected utility for a sequence of discrete-time economies that “approach” the BSM economy in a natural...

Katherine Casey
June 28, 2019

Seminal studies show that naïve lab participants accurately predict who wins real-world elections based solely on candidate photos. It is unclear what this implies for the health of democracy without knowing whether candidates who look...

Philip G. Berger, Jung Ho Choi, Sorabh Tomar
June 9, 2019

Does decomposing cost of goods sold entail significant competitive costs? We examine this question using a relaxation of disaggregated manufacturing cost disclosure requirements in Korea. Our survey evidence indicates managers perceive these disclosures to provide...

David M. Kreps, Walter Schachermayer
June 2019

We prove a fundamental result concerning the connection between discrete-time models of financial markets and the celebrated Black–Scholes–Merton continuous-time model in which “markets are complete.” Specifically, we prove that if (a) the probability law of a...

Rob Donnelly, Francisco R, Ruiz, David Blei, Susan Athey
June 2019

This paper proposes a method for estimating consumer preferences among discrete choices, where the consumer chooses at most one product in a category, but selects from multiple categories in parallel. The consumer’s utility is additive...

Claudia Robles-Garcia
May 30, 2019

Mortgage brokers acting as expert advisors for households often receive commission payments from lenders. This paper empirically analyzes the effects on welfare and market structure of regulations restricting this form of broker compensation. Loan-level data...

Katherine Casey, Rachel Glennerster, Edward Miguel, Maarten Voors
May 29, 2019

Where the state is weak, traditional authorities often control the local provision of land, justice, and public goods. These authorities are criticized for ruling in an undemocratic and unaccountable fashion, and are typically quite...

Szu-chi Huang, Jennifer Aaker
May 16, 2019

Forthcoming at Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

People pursue goals throughout their lives, and many of these attempts end happily—a goal is achieved. However, what facilitates the continuation of behaviors that are aligned with the...

Robb Willer, Jan Gerrit Voelkel
May 8, 2019

While polls show progressive economic policies are popular, progressive candidates typically lose elections in the U.S. One explanation for this progressive paradox is that the opponents of progressive candidates often win through “symbolic politics,” successfully...

Lawrence M. Wein, Abbas Kazerouni
May 2019

Submitted to Operations Research

Motivated by drug design, we consider the best-arm identification problem in generalized linear bandits. More specifically, we assume each arm has a vector of covariates, there is an unknown vector of...

Jung Ho Choi, Brandon Gipper
May 2019

We examine employment effects, such as wages and employee turnover, before, during, and after periods of fraudulent financial reporting. To analyze these effects, we combine U.S. Census data with SEC enforcement actions against firms with...

Anat R. Admati, Martin F. Hellwig
April 30, 2019

We take issue with claims that the funding mix of banks, which makes them fragile and crisis-prone, is efficient because it reflects special liquidity benefits of bank debt. Even aside from neglecting the systemic damage...

Harikesh S. Nair
April 30, 2019

This chapter presents a selective review of a literature in marketing that analyzes diffusion and pricing over the product life-cycle. I primarily focus on empirical work, and on papers that deal with the dynamics of...

Takuo Sugaya, Yuichi Yamamoto
April 26, 2019

We study repeated games in which players learn the unknown state of the world by observing a sequence of noisy private signals. We find that for generic signal distributions, the folk theorem obtains using ex-post...

Juliane Begenau, Saki Bigio, Jeremy Majerovitz
April 2019

This paper presents five facts on the behavior of U.S. banks between 2007 and 2015 that impose useful restrictions on the formulation of a bank problem. (1) Market to book leverage ratio diverged significantly during...

Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens
March 24, 2019

We discuss the relevance of the recent Machine Learning (ML) literature for economics and econometrics. First we discuss the differences in goals, methods and settings between the ML literature and the traditional econometrics and statistics...

John Kepler, Christopher Armstrong, Stephen Glaeser
March 21, 2019

We examine how firms’ accounting quality affects their reaction to monetary policy. The balance sheet channel of monetary transmission emphasizes the role of information asymmetry between firms and capital providers in propagating the effects of...