Working Papers

Political polarization is increasingly affecting policymaking, but how is it influencing professional decision-making? This paper studies the differences in medical practice between Republican and Democratic physicians over 1999-2019. It links…

This paper studies expectations formation when the underlying process has fat tails. Using a large sample of firm sales growth expectations, we document three facts: (i) the relationship between forecast revisions and future forecast errors is…

Over the last half-century, economic growth stagnated but stock-market wealth boomed. I present evidence that declining innovation productivity reconciles these trends. At the macro level, I document that R&D spending has fallen relative to…

This paper studies whether households are selectively inattentive to interest rates and examines its macroeconomic implications. We first use existing and newly-designed household surveys to establish that households close to durables purchases…

Student loans with income-contingent repayment insure borrowers against income risk but can reduce their incentives to earn more. Using a change in Australia’s income-contingent repayment schedule, I show that borrowers reduce their labor supply…

Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We…

This paper analyzes interactions between corporate governance and law enforcement practices, focusing on cases where deterrence is weak and harmful misconduct is profitable. We show how managerial compensation contracts, including stock-based…

Third-party litigation finance is an increasingly popular practice in commercial litigation. Despite calls for mandated disclosure, litigation funders are mostly anonymous to defendants, judges and juries. We first present an equilibrium model of…

Populism has been on the rise, posing a threat to liberal democracy. Existing evidence suggests that globalization, economic shocks, and concerns over cultural change increase support for populist agendas. Yet less is known about interventions…

We show how to measure the welfare effects arising from increased data availability. When lenders have more data on prospective borrower costs, they can charge prices that are more aligned with these costs. This increases total social welfare and…

As LLMs become the default interface for search, news, and everyday problem-solving, they may filter and frame political information before citizens ever confront it. Identifying and mitigating partisan “bias”—output with a systematic slant…

This paper provides early evidence on the integration and impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) in accounting at the accountant and task levels. Using a multi-method approach, we first identify heterogeneous adoption patterns,…

We develop a rational, non-behavioral framework in which analysts use empirical Bayesian techniques to construct their forecasts. Our approach assumes that analysts construct a single empirical prior by aggregating information across all of the…

A solution concept that is a refinement of Nash equilibria selects for each finite game a nonempty collection of closed and connected subsets of Nash equilibria as solutions. We impose three axioms for such solution concepts. The axiom of…

Artists and policy makers are concerned that Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) may lead to disappearance of non-GenAI content. In this paper we study the implications of GenAI for the production and consumption of creative goods; such as…

Converting public information into stock picks is unlikely to be costless, yet the magnitude of public information processing costs is unknown. We quantify extra-marginal information costs for mutual fund managers by building an “AI analyst” that…

Modern recommender systems, which rely on large-scale machine learning (ML) models to predict the next item a consumer will engage with, often lack generalizability and understanding of consumer behaviors due to their black-box nature. To address…

Empirical research in economics often examines the behavior of agents located in a geographic space. In such cases, statistical inference is complicated by the interdependence of economic outcomes across locations. A common approach to account…

In this overview piece, I review the literature and identify important directions for how developing societies can break out of such ethnic growth traps and instead leverage the gains that can often be had from ethnic diversity. To do this…

What can we learn from the high-frequency responses in bond and currency markets to the recent tariff announcement about the status of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency? The dollar depreciated by 3.4% after April 4 in spite of rising…