Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies

Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies

By
Iván Marinovic, Marco Ottaviani, Peter Sorensen
Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Elsevier,
2011, Vol. 2, Pages 690-720

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.