Forecasting the Effectiveness of Work-Trip Gasoline Conservation Policies through Conjoint Analysis

Policies such as tax surcharges on gasoline and reductions in transit fare were examined for their potential effectiveness in conserving gasoline. Individual level preference functions to predict work-trip modal choice (auto, public transit or car pool) were estimated through conjoint analysis using attributes such as travel cost and additional ride time. Respondents preferences for each travel mode were computed using the modified attribute values corresponding to each policy option. The preferences were then used to forecast potential shifts to transit or car pool and the resulting gasoline savings.