The Impact of Impact Investing

We evaluate the quantitative effect of ESG divestitures on the cost of capital of affected firms. We derive a simple expression for the change in the cost of capital as a function of three inputs: (1) the fraction of socially conscious capital, (2) the fraction of targeted firms in the economy and (3) the correlation between the targeted firms and the rest of the stock market. Given the current state of ESG investment we find that the impact on the cost of capital is too small to meaningfully affect real investment decisions. We empirically corroborate these small estimates by studying firm changes in ESG status. When firms are either included or excluded from the leading socially conscious US index (FTSE USA 4Good) we find no detectable effect on the cost of capital. Our results suggest that to have impact, instead of divesting, socially conscious investors should invest and exercise their rights of control to change corporate policy.