A True Expert Knows which Question Should be Asked

A True Expert Knows which Question Should be Asked

By Yossi Feinberg, Eddie Dekel
2004Working Paper No. 1856

We suggest a test for discovering whether a potential expert is informed of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian non-parametric setting, the expert is asked to make a prediction which is tested against a single realization of the stochastic process. It is shown that by asking the expert to predict a small set of sequences, the test will assure that any informed expert can pass the test with probability one with respect to the actual distribution. Moreover, for the uninformed non-expert it is impossible to pass this test, in the sense that for any choice of a small set of sequences, only a small set of measures will assign a positive probability to the given set. Hence for most measures, the non-expert will surely fail the test. We define small as category 1 sets, described in more detail in the paper.

Keywords
economic theory