Publications by Golub Capital Social Impact Lab

Browse or search publications from faculty affiliated with the lab.

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Working Paper

Using Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks for the Design of Monte Carlo Simulations

Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens, Jonas Metzger, Evan Munro
September2019

Researchers often use artificial data to assess the performance of new econometric methods. In many cases the data generating processes used in these Monte Carlo studies do not resemble real data sets and instead reflect many arbitrary decisions…

Working Paper

Sufficient Representations for Categorical Variables

Jonathan Johannemann, Vitor Hadad, Susan Athey, Stefan Wager
August2019

Many learning algorithms require categorical data to be transformed into real vectors before it can be used as input. Often, categorical variables are encoded as one-hot (or dummy) vectors. However, this mode of representation can be…

Journal Article

Balanced Linear Contextual Bandits

Maria Dimakopoulou, Zhengyuan Zhou, Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens
Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence July232019 Vol. 33 Issue 1

Contextual bandit algorithms are sensitive to the estimation method of the outcome model as well as the exploration method used, particularly in the presence of rich heterogeneity or complex outcome models, which can lead to difficult estimation…

Working Paper

Synthetic Difference in Differences

Dmitry Arkhangelsky, Susan Athey, David A. Hirshberg, Guido W. Imbens, Stefan Wager
February12019

We present a new perspective on the Synthetic Control (SC) method as a weighted least squares regression estimator with time fixed effects and unit weights. This perspective suggests a generalization with two way (both unit and time) fixed…

Journal Article

Generalized Random Forests

Susan Athey, Julie Tibshirani, Stefan Wager
Annals of Statistics 2019 Vol. 47 Issue 2

We propose generalized random forests, a method for nonparametric statistical estimation based on random forests (Breiman [Mach. Learn. 45(2001) 5–32]) that can be used to fit any quantity of interest identified as…

Working Paper

Estimation Considerations in Contextual Bandits

Maria Dimakopoulou, Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens
December2018

Contextual bandit algorithms are sensitive to the estimation method of the outcome model as well as the exploration method used, particularly in the presence of rich heterogeneity or complex outcome models, which can lead to difficult…

Working Paper

Offline Multi-Action Policy Learning: Generalization and Optimization

Susan Athey, Zhengyuan Zhou, Stefan Wager
October102018

In many settings, a decision-maker wishes to learn a rule, or policy, that maps from observable characteristics of an individual to an action. Examples include selecting offers, prices, advertisements, or emails to send to consumers, as well as…

Working Paper

Economists (and Economics) in Tech Companies

Susan Athey, Michael Luca
September112018

As technology platforms have created new markets and new ways of acquiring information, economists have come to play an increasingly central role in tech companies – tackling problems such as platform design, strategy, pricing, and policy. Over…

Journal Article

Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests

Stefan Wager, Susan Athey
Journal of the American Statistical Association June62018 Vol. 113 Issue 523

Many scientific and engineering challenges—ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations—require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this article, we develop a nonparametric causal forest …

Journal Article

Estimating Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences for Restaurants and Travel Time Using Mobile Location Data

Susan Athey, David Blei, Robert Donnelly, Francisco Ruiz, Tobias Schmidt
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings May2018 Vol. 108

We estimate a model of consumer choices over restaurants using data from several thousand anonymous mobile phone users. Restaurants have latent characteristics (whose distribution may depend on restaurant observables) that affect consumers’ mean…

Journal Article

Approximate Residual Balancing: Debiased Inference of Average Treatment Effects in High Dimensions

Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens, Stefan Wager
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society-Series B February182018 Vol. 80 Issue 4

There are many settings where researchers are interested in estimating average treatment effects and are willing to rely on the unconfoundedness assumption, which requires that the treatment assignment be as good as random conditional on…

Journal Article

Stable Predictions across Unknown Environments

Kun Kuang, Ruoxuan Xiong, Peng Cui, Susan Athey, Bo Li
Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 2018

In many important machine learning applications, the training distribution used to learn a probabilistic classifier differs from the testing distribution on which the classifier will be used to make predictions. Traditional methods correct the…

Journal Article

Exact P-values for Network Interference

Susan Athey, Dean Eckles, Guido W. Imbens
Journal of the American Statistical Association November132017 Vol. 113 Issue 521

We study the calculation of exact p-values for a large class of non-sharp null hypotheses about treatment effects in a setting with data from experiments involving members of a single connected network. The class includes null hypotheses that…

Working Paper

Sampling-Based vs. Design-Based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis

Alberto Abadie, Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens, Jeffrey M. Wooldridge
June2017

Previously titled: Finite Population Causal Standard Errors

Consider a researcher estimating the parameters of a regression function based on data for all 50 states in the United States or on data for all visits to a website. What…

Journal Article

Estimating Average Treatment Effects: Supplementary Analyses and Remaining Challenges

Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens, Thai Pham, Stefan Wager
American Economic Review May2017 Vol. 107 Issue 5

There is a large literature on semiparametric estimation of average treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignment in settings with a fixed number of covariates. More recently attention has focused on settings with a large number of…

Journal Article

Beyond Prediction: Using Big Data for Policy Problems

Susan Athey
Science February32017 Vol. 335 Issue 6324

Machine-learning prediction methods have been extremely productive in applications ranging from medicine to allocating fire and health inspectors in cities. However, there are a number of gaps between making a prediction and making a decision,…

Journal Article

Context Selection for Embedding Models

Li-Ping Liu, Francisco J. R. Ruiz, Susan Athey, David M. Blei
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 30 (NIPS 2017) 2017

Word embeddings are an effective tool to analyze language. They have been recently extended to model other types of data beyond text, such as items in recommendation systems. Embedding models consider the probability of a target observation (a…

Working Paper

Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models

Susan Athey, Mohsen Bayati, Nick Doudchenko, Guido W. Imbens, Khashayar Khosravi
2017

In this paper we develop new methods for estimating causal effects in settings with panel data, where a subset of units are exposed to a treatment during a subset of periods, and the goal is estimating counterfactual (untreated) outcomes for the…

Journal Article

Structured Embedding Models for Grouped Data

Maja Rudolph, Francisco Ruiz, Susan Athey
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 30 (NIPS 2017) 2017

Word embeddings are a powerful approach for analyzing language, and exponential family embeddings (EFE) extend them to other types of data. Here we develop structured exponential family embeddings (SEFE), a method for discovering embeddings that…