Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

SSRN Research Paper Series

The Social Science Research Network’s Research Paper Series includes working papers produced by Stanford GSB the Rock Center.

You may search for authors and topics and download copies of the work there.

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Policy Learning with Observational Data

Susan Athey, Stefan Wager
September2020

In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example, policies…

Unpaired Kidney Exchange: Overcoming Double Coincidence of Wants without Money

Mohammad Akbarpour, Julien Combe, Yinghua He, Victor Hiller, Robert Shimer, Olivier Tercieux
September2020

For an incompatible patient-donor pair, kidney exchanges often forbid receipt-before-donation (the patient receives a kidney before the donor donates) and donation-before-receipt, causing a double-coincidence-of-wants problem. Our proposed…

The Impact of Payment Frequency on Subjective Wealth Perceptions and Discretionary Spending

Wendy De La Rosa, Stephanie M. Tully
August292020

An increasingly popular trend is for consumers to get paid more often, resulting in more frequent, yet smaller paychecks. However, surprisingly little is known about whether and how payment frequency impacts consumer behavior. The current work…

Consumption Vouchers during COVID-19: Evidence from E-Commerce

Di Wu, Harikesh S. Nair, Tong Geng
August282020

As households reduce discretionary spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns are high that a resulting fall in aggregate demand can lead to a lasting recession post-COVID-19. Consequently, policies aimed at stimulating consumer…

Manufacturing Risk-Free Government Debt

Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Mindy Z. Xiaolan
August172020

When debt is priced fairly, governments face a trade-off between insuring bondholders and taxpayers. If the government decides to fully insure bondholders by manufacturing risk-free debt, then it cannot insure taxpayers against permanent macro-…

Alpha-1 Adrenergic Receptor Antagonists for Preventing Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome and Death from Cytokine Storm Syndrome

Allison Koenecke, Michael Powell, Ruoxuan Xiong, Zhu Shen, Nicole Fischer, Sakibul Huq, Adham M. Khalafallah, Marco Trevisan, Pär Sparen, Juan J. Carrero, Akihiko Nishimura, Brian Caffo, Elizabeth A. Stuart, Renyuan Bai, Verena Staedtke, Nickolas Papadopoulos, Kenneth W. Kinzler, Bert Vogelstein, Shibin Zhou, Chetan Bettegowda, Maximilian F. Konig, Brett Mensh, Joshua T. Vogelstein, Susan Athey
August2020

In severe viral pneumonia, including Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the viral replication phase is often followed by hyperinflammation (‘cytokine storm syndrome’), which can lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multi-organ failure,…

Across-the-Curve Credit Spread Indices

Antje Berndt, Darrell Duffie, Yichao Zhu
July232020

This note presents a preliminary approach to the design of an across-the-curve credit spread index (AXI). The index is a measure of the recent average cost of wholesale unsecured debt funding for publicly listed U.S. bank holding companies and…

Conditional Calibration for False Discovery Rate Control under Dependence

William Fithian, Lihua Lei
July222020

We introduce a new class of methods for finite-sample false discovery rate (FDR) control in multiple testing problems with dependent test statistics where the dependence is fully or partially known. Our approach separately calibrates a data-…

Differences Beyond Identity: Perceived Construal Distance and Interparty Animosity in the United States

Austin van Loon, Amir Goldberg, Sameer B. Srivastava
July2020

What leads people to feel negatively about members of other social groups? While recent work has mostly focused on the strength of group identity, we propose that perceptions of intergroup difference, and the animus they catalyze, are often…

The Good, the Bad, and the Complex: Product Design with Imperfect Information

Vladimir Asriyan, Dana Foarta, Victoria Vanasco
July2020

We study the joint determination of product quality and complexity in a rational setting. We introduce a novel notion of complexity, which affects how costly it is for an agent to acquire information about product quality. In our model, an agent…

Third-Degree Price Discrimination versus Uniform Pricing

Dirk Bergemann, Francisco Castro, Gabriel Weintraub
June302020

We compare the revenue of the optimal third-degree price discrimination policy against a uniform pricing policy. A uniform pricing policy offers the same price to all segments of the market. Our main result establishes that for a broad class of…

Combining Experimental and Observational Data to Estimate Treatment Effects on Long Term Outcomes

Susan Athey, Raj Chetty, Guido W. Imbens
June172020

There has been an increase in interest in experimental evaluations to estimate causal effects, partly because their internal validity tends to be high. At the same time, as part of the big data revolution, large, detailed, and representative,…

Augmenting Markets with Mechanisms

Darrell Duffie, Samuel Antill
June162020

We explain how the common practice of size-discovery trade detracts from overall financial market efficiency. At each of a series of size-discovery sessions, traders report their desired trades, generating allocations of the asset and cash that…

Experimental Design in Two-Sided Platforms: An Analysis of Bias

Ramesh Johari, Hannah Li, Gabriel Weintraub
June162020

We develop an analytical framework to study experimental design in two-sided platforms. In the settings we consider, customers rent listings; rented listings are occupied for some amount of time, then become available. Platforms typically use two…

Mean Field Equilibrium: Uniqueness, Existence, and Comparative Statics

Bar Light, Gabriel Weintraub
June42020

The standard solution concept for stochastic games is Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE); however, its computation becomes intractable as the number of players increases. Instead, we consider mean field equilibrium (MFE) that has been popularized…

Corporate Debt Overhang and Credit Policy

Arvind Krishnamurthy, Markus Brunnermeier
June2020

Corporate Debt Overhang and Credti Policy

Markus Brunnermeier
June2020

How Should U.S. Bank Regulators Respond to the COVID-19 Crisis?

Michael Blank, Jeremy C. Stein , Samuel G. Hanson , Adi Sunderam
June2020

Drawing on lessons from the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and a simple conceptual framework, we examine the response of U.S. bank regulators to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the current regulatory strategy of “watchful waiting…

Information Disclosure in Two-Sided Platforms: Optimizing for Supply

Kostas Bimpikis, Yiangos Papanastasiou, Wenchang Zhang
June2020

While information design has gained significant attention in the recent literature as a tool for shaping consumers’ purchase behavior, little is known about its use and implications in two-sided marketplaces, where both supply and demand…

Searching for Approval

Sumit Agarwal, John Grigsby, Ali Hortaçsu, Gregor Matvos, Amit Seru, Vincent Yao
June2020

We study the interaction of search and application approval in credit markets. We combine a unique dataset, which details search behavior for a large sample of mortgage borrowers, with loan application and rejection decisions. Our data reveal…