Working Papers

In a multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem a gambler needs to choose at each round of play one of K arms, each characterized by an unknown reward distribution. Reward realizations are only observed when an arm is selected, and the gambler’s objective…

This paper studies multi-tier supply chain networks in the presence of disruption risk. Firms decide how to source their inputs from upstream suppliers so as to maximize their expected profits, and prices of intermediate goods are set so that…

Both practitioners and scholars have shown interest in initiatives that reduce bias and promote inclusion. Diversity ideologies—or beliefs and practices regarding how to approach group differences in diverse settings—have been studied as one set…

Journal of Organizational Behavior, in press

Competence and sociability (warmth) are fundamental dimensions of social judgment in organizations. However, these qualities are frequently seen as negatively related, with mixed…

This paper studies the transmission channels of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) asset purchase programs via the banking sector using proprietary data from the Bank of Portugal. Banks that hold larger amounts of assets eligible for ECB purchase…

We develop a general and unified model in which a continuum of agents conduct directed random searches for counterparties. Our results provide the first probabilistic foundation for static and dynamic models of directed search (including the…

Community targeting of vote payments — defined as the saturation of entire neighborhoods with cash prior to elections — is widespread in the developing world. In this paper, we utilize laboratory experiments conducted in the U.S. and Kenya to…

There is post-FOMC announcement drift in Treasury markets after Fed Funds target changes. The expectations hypothesis holds on FOMC announcement days, but fails thereafter. The same-day response of 10-year Treasury yields to a 10 bps. surprise in…

American politics overrepresents the wealthy. But what policies do the wealthy support? Many accounts implicitly assume the wealthy are monolithically conservative and that increases in their political power will increase inequality. Instead, we…

In some developing nations, many end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients die because the costs of kidney transplantation and dialysis are beyond the reach of most citizens. In this paper, we analyze two proposals for extending kidney exchange to…

Hydrogen has long been heralded as a potentially critical element in the transition to a low carbon economy. The recent sharp cost declines for renewable energy raise the question whether an economic case can be made to produce hydrogen from…

I consider the sequential implementation of a target information structure. I characterize the set of decision time distributions induced by all signal processes that satisfy a per-period learning capacity constraint. I find that all decision…

We measure credit risk premia, meaning the price for bearing corporate default risk in excess of expected default losses, using Markit CDS and Moody’s Analytics EDF data. We find dramatic variation over time in credit risk premia, with peaks in…

The board of directors is expected to ensure that management has identified and developed processes to mitigate risks facing the organization, including risks arising from data theft and the loss of information. Unfortunately, recent experience…

This paper studies the welfare effects of a ‘partial banking union’ in which cross-country …financial transfers that could be used towards bailouts are decided at the supranational level, but policymakers in member countries hold…

We consider a cheap talk setting with two senders and a continuum of receivers with heterogeneous preferences. Receivers listen to just one sender, but can choose which sender to listen to. We determine that: (i) full communication is possible…

This study examines the factors contributing to a striking increase in information content of quarterly earnings announcements, measured as the absolute magnitude of stock price revision at earnings announcements relative to price revision at…

Firms’ inability to commit to future funding choices has profound consequences for capital structure dynamics. With debt in place, shareholders pervasively resist leverage reductions no matter how much such reductions may enhance firm value.…

We extend the emergent lens on strategy formulation by arguing that great strategies arise from insurgent identity movements. In motivating the paper, we depict Steve Jobs as an activist constituted by the personal computing movement that…