Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

SSRN Research Paper Series

The Social Science Research Network’s Research Paper Series includes working papers produced by Stanford GSB the Rock Center.

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Where Experts Get It Wrong: Independence vs. Leadership in Corporate Governance

David F. Larcker, Brian Tayan
March132014

Over the last few decades, researchers have taken a thorough and critical look at corporate governance from various perspectives. For the most part, they have found that structural features of corporate governance have little or no relation to…

Exploration for Human Capital: Evidence from the MBA Labor Market

Paul Oyer, Camelia Kuhnen
March2014

We empirically investigate the effect of uncertainty on corporate hiring. Using novel data from the labor market for MBA graduates, we show that uncertainty regarding how well job candidates fit with a firm’s industry hinders hiring, and that…

Dynamically Eliciting Unobservable Information

Christopher Chambers, Nicolas S. Lambert
February62014

We answer the following question: At t = 1, an expert has (probabilistic) information about a random outcome X. In addition, the expert will obtain further information about X as time passes, up to some time t = T + 1 at which X will be publicly…

Motivating Consummate Effort

David M. Kreps
February2014

Central Clearing and Collateral Demand

Darrell Duffie, Martin Scheicher , Guillaume Vuillemey
January312014

We use an extensive data set of bilateral exposures on credit default swap (CDS) to estimate the impact on collateral demand of new margin and clearing practices and regulations. We decompose collateral demand for both customers and dealers into…

Dynamic Information Asymmetry, Financing, and Investment Decisions

Ilya A. Strebulaev, Haoxiang Zhu , Pavel Zryumov
January262014

We reexamine the classic yet static information asymmetry model of Myers and Majluf (1984) in a fully dynamic market. A firm has access to an investment project and can finance it by debt or equity. The market learns the quality of the firm over…

Cashing-In Credibility

Iván Marinovic, Felipe Varas
January242014

This paper studies a dynamic communication game in which the seller of an asset, whose credibility is unknown to the market, reports changes in the asset value during multiple periods before selling the asset. We characterize the strategy by…

Social Media and News Consumption

Susan Athey, Markus Mobius, Jeno Pal
January142014

This paper analyzes how the audience for internet news varies with the source of the referral, comparing the audience when users navigate directly to news outlets to that when users are referred by social media. On average, the audience referred…

Competition for Talent Under Performance Manipulation: CEOs on Steroids

Iván Marinovic, Paul Povel
January2014

We study how competition for talent affects CEO compensation, taking into consideration that CEO decisions and CEO skills or talent are not observable, and CEOs can manipulate performance as measured by outsiders. Firms compete by offering…

Disruption Risk and Optimal Sourcing in Multi-tier Supply Networks

Dan A. Iancu, Erjie Ang, Robert Swinney
2014

We study sourcing in a supply chain with three levels: a manufacturer, Tier 1 suppliers, and Tier 2 suppliers prone to disruption from, e.g., natural disasters like earthquakes or floods. The manufacturer may not directly dictate which Tier 2…

Forecasting Emergency Department Wait Times

Erica Plambeck, Mohsen Bayati, Erjie Ang, Sara Kwasnick, Mike Aratow
2014

This paper proposes a Combined Method (combining fluid model estimators and statistical learning) to forecast the wait time for low-acuity patients in an Emergency Department, and describes the implementation of the…

Gandhi's Gift: Lessons for Peaceful Reform from India's Struggle for Democracy

Saumitra Jha, Rikhil Bhavnani
2014

In this overview article, we summarize recent research in progress that examines the potential and limitations of non-violent civil disobedience through the lens of the evolution of an iconic success: India’s struggle for democratic self-rule. We…

Improving the Prediction of Emergency Department Waiting Times.

Erica Plambeck, Erjie Ang, Mohsen Bayati, Sara Kwasnick
2014

Measurement and Improvement of Social and Environmental Performance under Voluntary versus Mandatory Disclosure

Basak Kalkanci, Erjie Ang, Erica Plambeck
2014

Governments are beginning to mandate that firms disclose information about social and environmental impacts in their supply chains (e.g., regarding conflict minerals and greenhouse gas emissions). This paper shows that such a mandate will…

Money in the Bank: Feeling Powerful Increases Saving

Jennifer Aaker, Emily Garbinsky, Anne-Kathrin Klesse
2014

Across five studies, this research reveals that feeling powerful increases saving. This effect is driven by the desire to maintain one’s current state. When the purpose of saving is no longer to accumulate money, but to spend it on a status-…

Multi-Sourcing and Miscoordination in Supply Chain Networks

Kostas Bimpikis, Douglas Fearing, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi
2014

This paper studies the endogenous formation of supply chain networks when procurement is subject to disruption risk. We argue that the presence of non-convexities in the chain (e.g., due to non-convex production technologies or financial…

Operationalizing Financial Covenants

Dan A. Iancu, Nikolaos Trichakis, Gerry Tsoukalas
2014

We study the interplay between financial covenants and the operational decisions of a retailer that obtains financing through a secured, inventory-based lending contract. We characterize how leverage affects dynamic inventory decisions, and…

Optimization in Online Content Recommendation Services: Beyond Click-Through Rates

Omar Besbes, Yonatan Gur, Assaf Zeevi
2014

A new class of online services allows internet media sites to direct users from articles they are currently reading to other content they may be interested in. This process creates a “browsing path” along which there is potential for repeated…

Risking Other People's Money: Gambling, Limited Liability, and Optimal Incentives

Peter M. DeMarzo, Dmitry Livdan, Alexei Tchistyi
2014

We consider optimal incentive contracts when managers can, in addition to shirking or diverting funds, increase short term profits by putting the firm at risk of a low probability “disaster.” To

avoid such risk-taking, investors…

'Unfinished Business': Historic Complementarities, Political Competition and Ethnic Violence in Gujarat

Saumitra Jha
2014

I examine how the historical legacies of inter-ethnic complementarity and competition interact with contemporary electoral competition in shaping patterns of ethnic violence. Using local comparisons within Gujarat, a single Indian state known for…