Publications

We examine the spillover effects of local initial public offerings (IPOs) on new business formation. An IPO in a local area is associated with a 1% to 4% increase in new business registrations, and this effect is particularly pronounced in…

Student loans with income-contingent repayment insure borrowers against income risk but can reduce their incentives to earn more. Using a change in Australia’s income-contingent repayment schedule, I show that borrowers reduce their labor supply…

We analyze the risks associated with Japan’s prolonged low-interest rate policies amid a global environment of rising rates. To finance its persistent deficits, the Japanese public sector depends on inexpensive domestic funding to invest in risky…

Identifying the optimal set of individuals to first receive information (“seeds”) in a social network to maximize expected diffusion is a widely studied question in many settings. Several studies propose network-centrality-based heuristics to…

In this paper we nonparametrically analyze the effects of reallocating individuals across social groups in the presence of social spillovers.…

This article examines the evolution and challenges of model-based capital regulation in banking, discussing its impact on banking system resilience and financial stability. Introduced with Basel II, model-based regulation sought to link capital…

Modern recommender systems rely on black-box machine learning models to predict consumer choices. However, because these models do not explicitly represent the underlying data-generating process (DGP), they often struggle to generalize beyond…

We analyze how credit and interest rate risk affect US bank solvency, focusing on 2022’s tightening and commercial real estate (CRE) loans representing 25% of average bank assets. Extending Jiang et al. (2024), we show that runs can emerge with…

Online social networks have transformed the ways in which political mobilization messages are disseminated, raising new questions about how peer influence operates at scale. Building on the landmark 61-million-person Facebook experiment, we…

As increasingly capable agents are deployed, a central safety challenge is how to retain meaningful human control without modifying the underlying system. We study a minimal control interface in which an agent chooses whether to act autonomously…

Consumer choices are constrained in many markets due to either supply-side rationing or information frictions. Examples include matching markets for schools and colleges; entry-level labour markets; limited brand awareness and inattention in…

Problem definition: The ongoing large-scale deployment of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology has the potential to fundamentally change the transportation landscape. Due to the high cost of AV hardware, the most likely…

Objective

To examine which hospital-payer contracts include Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) codes and whether they set prices as a consistent multiple of hospital list prices or Medicare’s DRG fee schedule.…

Taxation is a central economic policy tool, with governments increasingly using tax policy to stimulate local economic growth and also regulate multinational firms. We review the empirical literature that studies the effect of tax policies on…

This paper documents new stylized facts about returns and cash flow growth rates on stocks and housing over decade-long holding periods. While cash flow growth rates on the two assets co-move positively, their returns co-move negatively until the…

This paper develops and estimates a structural model of the labor market for accountants that integrates forward-looking lifetime occupational choices with oligopsonistic employer demand. Using longitudinal resume data covering career transitions…

In collaboration with Feeding America, we aim to redesign Real-Time—a tool on its food sourcing and rescue platform, MealConnect—that facilitates the connection of ad-hoc, time-sensitive food donations to local agencies (e.g., meal programs)…

Tens of thousands of scientists contribute to peer review as journal editors and reviewers of the millions of manuscripts submitted every year. How do they decide what is quality work? What values do they apply in evaluating which science merits…

Are widespread stereotypes accurate or socially distorted? This continuing debate is limited by the lack of large-scale multimodal data on stereotypical associations and the inability to compare these to ground truth indicators. Here we overcame…

An enduring challenge in contagion theory is that the pathways contagions follow through social networks exhibit emergent complexities that are difficult to predict using network structure. Here, we address this challenge by developing a causal…