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The Role of Government Reimbursement in Drug Shortages
Beginning in the mid-2000s, the incidence of drug shortages rose, especially for generic injectable drugs such as anesthetics and chemotherapy treatments. We examine whether reimbursement changes contributed to the shortages, focusing on a…
The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation
In this paper, we discuss recent developments in econometrics that we view as important for empirical researchers working on policy evaluation questions. We focus on three main areas, in each case, highlighting recommendations for applied work.…
Uncovering Expected Returns: Information in Analyst Coverage Proxies
We show that analyst coverage proxies contain information about expected returns. We decompose analyst coverage into abnormal and expected components using a simple characteristic-based model and show that firms with abnormally high analyst…
Yuliy Sannikov: Winner of the 2016 Clark Medal
Yuliy Sannikov is an extraordinary theorist who has developed methods that offer new insights in analyzing problems that had seemed well-studied and familiar: for example, decisions that might bring about cooperation and/or defection in a…
Stock Price Management and Share Issuance: Evidence from Equity Warrants
We address whether firms manage stock prices in anticipation of share issuances. A literature in finance attributes negative returns following share issuances to market timing, whereas studies in accounting interpret similar return patterns as…
Is Operating Flexibility Harmful Under Debt?
We study the inefficiencies stemming from a firm’s operating flexibility under debt. We find that flexibility in replenishing or liquidating inventory, by providing risk-shifting incentives, could lead to borrowing costs that erase more than one-…
The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns
We show that bond factors, which predict future U.S. economic activity at business cycle horizons, are priced in the cross-section of U.S. stock returns. High book-to-market stocks have larger exposures to these bond factors than low book-to-…
Capital Share Dynamics When Firms Insure Workers
Although the aggregate capital share for U.S. firms has increased, the firm-level capital share has decreased on average. The divergence is due to the largest firms. While these mega-firms now produce a larger output share, their labor…
Bias in Cable News: Real Effects and Polarization
We measure the persuasive effects of slanted news and tastes for like-minded news, exploiting cable channel positions as exogenous shifters of cable news viewership. Channel positions do not correlate with demographics that predict viewership and…
It's the Conventional Thought That Counts: How Third-Order Inference Produces Status Advantage
A core claim of sociological theory is that modern institutions fall short of their meritocratic ideals, whereby rewards should be allocated based on achievement-related criteria. Instead, high-status actors often experience a “status advantage…
An Activist View of CEO Compensation
Understanding CEO compensation plans is a continuing challenge for directors and investors. The disclosure of these plans is dictated by SEC rules that rely heavily on the “fair value” of awards at the time they are granted. The problem with…
Bank Earnings and Regulatory Capital Management using Available for Sale Securities
Based on a large sample of publicly listed and non-listed US commercial banks from 1996 to 2011, we find robust evidence consistent with banks using realized available for sale (AFS) securities gains and losses to smooth earnings and increase low…
Do MBAs Pick Winning Stocks When Choosing Their First Job?
Every summer and fall, freshly minted MBAs and MBA summer interns take new positions at companies. We analyze whether their choices have any predictive power on the success of those companies. We show that MBAs tend to join companies that have…
Does Competition Reduce Racial Discrimination in Lending?
This paper examines whether increases in bank competition reduce discriminatory practices in mortgage lending. Lenders are significantly less likely to approve Black applicants’ loan applications despite facing similar credit risk. However,…
Equity, Insider Trading, & Restatements
This Research Spotlight provides a summary of the academic literature on the impact of equity ownership on firm performance and agency problems:
- The relation between equity ownership and performance
- The relation between…
Incentive Alignment and Coordination of Project Supply Chains
We consider a project supply chain where a manufacturer carries out a sequence of tasks, and each task requires certain key materials from a supplier. Since a fixed-price contract cannot attain channel coordination, we focus on time-based…
Long-Term Consequences of Election Results
Voters in U.S. elections receive markedly different representation depending on which candidate they elect, and because of incumbent advantages, the effects of this choice persist for many years. What are the long-term consequences of these two…
Optimal Financial Knowledge and Wealth Inequality
We show that financial knowledge is a key determinant of wealth inequality in a stochastic life cycle model with endogenous financial knowledge accumulation, where financial knowledge enables individuals to better allocate lifetime resources in a…
A Re-examination of the Informational Role of Earnings Announcements
No abstract available
Relating Product Prices to Long-Run Marginal Cost: Evidence from Solar Photovoltaic Modules
A basic tenet of microeconomics is that for a competitive industry in equilibrium the market price of a product will be equal to its marginal cost. This paper develops a model framework and a corresponding empirical inference procedure for…