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Convergence of Optimal Expected Utility for a Sequence of Discrete-Time Markets
We examine Kreps’ conjecture that optimal expected utility in the classic Black-Scholes-Merton economy is the limit of optimal expected utility for a sequence of discrete‐time economies that “approach” the BSM economy in a natural sense:…
Corporate Debt Overhang and Credit Policy
A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Number of Samples to Collect and Test From a Sexual Assault
Although the backlog of untested sexual assault kits in the United States is starting to be addressed, many municipalities are opting for selective testing of samples within a kit, where only the most probative samples are tested. We use data…
Duality in Diversity: How Intrapersonal and Interpersonal Cultural Heterogeneity Relate to Firm Performance
How does cultural heterogeneity in an organization relate to its underlying capacity for execution and innovation? Existing literature often understands cultural diversity as presenting a tradeoff between task coordination and creative…
A Forward Bias in Human Profile-Oriented Portraits
The spatial composition of human portraits obeys historically changing cultural norms. We show that it is also affected by cognitive factors that cause greater spontaneous attention to what is in front rather in the back of an agent. Scenes with…
How Should U.S. Bank Regulators Respond to the COVID-19 Crisis?
Drawing on lessons from the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and a simple conceptual framework, we examine the response of U.S. bank regulators to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the current regulatory strategy of “watchful waiting…
Information Disclosure in Two-Sided Platforms: Optimizing for Supply
While information design has gained significant attention in the recent literature as a tool for shaping consumers’ purchase behavior, little is known about its use and implications in two-sided marketplaces, where both supply and demand…
Long-Term-Care Utility and Late-in-Life Saving
Older wealth holders spend down assets much more slowly than predicted by classic life-cycle models. This paper introduces health-dependent utility into a model with incomplete markets in which preferences for bequests, expenditures when in…
Searching for Approval
We study the interaction of search and application approval in credit markets. We combine a unique dataset, which details search behavior for a large sample of mortgage borrowers, with loan application and rejection decisions. Our data reveal…
Socioeconomic Network Heterogeneity and Pandemic Policy Response
We develop a heterogeneous-agents network-based model to analyze alternative policies during a pandemic outbreak, accounting for health and economic trade-offs within the same empirical framework. We leverage a variety of data sources, including…
Still the World’s Safe Haven? Redesigning the U.S. Treasury Market After the COVID-19 Crisis
I review the functionality of the secondary market for U.S. Treasuries in March 2020, when the Covid-19 crisis triggered investor flows that overwhelmed intermediaries. Although the Fed was able to largely restore market liquidity through its…
The Effect of Foreclosures on Homeowners, Tenants, and Landlords
How costly is foreclosure? Estimates of the social cost of foreclosure typically focus on financial costs. Using random judge assignment instrumental variable (IV) and propensity score matching (PSM) approaches in Cook County, Illinois, we find…
The Past, Present, and Future of Measurement and Methods in Marketing Analysis
The field of marketing has made significant strides over the past 50 years in understanding how methodological choices affect the validity of conclusions drawn from our research. This paper highlights some of these and is organized as follows: We…
The Spread of COVID-19 Disclosure
Investors rely on corporate disclosure to make informed decisions about the value of companies they invest in. The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique opportunity to examine disclosure practices of companies relative to peers in real time about a…
Too Good to Hire? Capability and Inferences about Commitment in Labor Markets
We examine how signals of a candidate’s capability affect perceptions of that person’s commitment to an employer. In four experimental studies that use hiring managers as subjects, we test and show that managers perceive highly capable…
Using Longitudinal Prescription Data to Examine the Incidence of Other Chronic Diseases Following Antidepressant Use
Depression not only creates enormous costs for treatment and lost work time, but also increases the risk for other costly chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes. The magnitude of these risks remains unclear, with existing…
Why Are Exchange Rates So Smooth? A Household Finance Explanation
Empirical moments of asset prices and exchange rates imply that pricing kernels are almost perfectly correlated across countries. Otherwise, observed real exchange rates would be too smooth for high Sharpe ratios. However, the cross-country…
policytree: Policy Learning via Doubly Robust Empirical Welfare Maximization over Trees
The problem of learning treatment assignment policies from randomized or observational data arises in many fields. For example, in personalized medicine, we seek to map patient observables (like age, gender, heart pressure, etc.) to a treatment…
Who Sees the Future? A Deep Learning Language Model Demonstrates the Vision Advantage of Being Small
Which groups are most likely to become visionaries that define the future of their field? Because vision is difficult to measure, prior work has reached conflicting conclusions: one perspective emphasizes the benefits of being large,…