Publications

There has been considerable interest across several fields in methods that reduce the problem of learning good treatment assignment policies to the problem of accurate policy evaluation. Given a class of candidate policies, these methods first…

Policy Points

• The private sector has large potential influence over social determinants of health, but we have limited information about how businesses perceive or engage in actions to promote health and well‐being.
• We…

This paper deals with a central challenge in organizational sociology: to predict adaptive capabilities in changing environments. We address theoretical and methodological gaps in existing research. First, whereas researchers have long…

Responsible supply chain is about ensuring that members of the supply chain are responsible for the well-being of the people and mother earth. There are both the environmental responsibility side and the social responsibility side. On top of this…

People frequently forecast the outcomes of competitive events. Some forecasts are about oneself (e.g., forecasting how one will perform in an athletic competition, school or job application, or professional contest), while many other forecasts…

We document three new facts about entrepreneurship. First, a majority of male entrepreneurs start a firm in the same or a closely related industry as their fathers’ industry of employment. Second, this tendency is correlated with intelligence:…

Using new data from the two U.S. securities information processors (SIPs) between August 6, 2015 and June 30, 2016, we examine claims that high-frequency trading (HFT) firms use direct feeds to exploit traders who rely on SIP prices. Across $3.7…

Proper scoring rules incentivize truthful probability reports from risk-neutral individuals. For individuals with much more general preferences (including risk and ambiguity aversion) we use duality techniques to characterize the optimal report…

Using a 1994 law change, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in the assignment of rent control in San Francisco to study its impacts on tenants and landlords. Leveraging new data tracking individuals’ migration, we find rent control limits…

Does bureaucratic ability predict promotion in governments? We show that self-reported performance in enforcing the One Child Policy predicts mayoral promotion in China. However, misreporting handicaps screening — a non-manipulated performance…

Using a sample of 388 securities fraud lawsuits filed between 2002 and 2017 against foreign issuers, we examine the effect of the Supreme Court’s decision in Morrison v. National Australia Bank Ltd. We find that the description of Morrison as a…

Researchers often use artificial data to assess the performance of new econometric methods. In many cases the data generating processes used in these Monte Carlo studies do not resemble real data sets and instead reflect many arbitrary decisions…

Can participation in financial markets lead individuals to re-evaluate the costs of conflict, change their political attitudes and even their votes? Prior to the 2015 Israeli elections, we randomly assigned Palestinian and Israeli financial…

People working toward individual goals often find themselves surrounded by others who are pursuing similar goals, such as at school, in fitness classes, and through goal-oriented network devices like Fitbit. This research explores when these…

Past research on idea evaluation has focused on how individuals evaluate the creativity of finalized ideas. But idea evaluation is also important early in the creative process, when individuals must forecast the potential creativity of rough…

We examine how firms’ accounting quality affects their reaction to monetary policy. The balance sheet channel of monetary transmission emphasizes the role of information asymmetry between firms and capital providers in propagating the…

Advertisers that engage in real-time bidding (RTB) to display their ads commonly have two goals: learning their optimal bidding policy and estimating the expected effect of exposing users to their ads. Typical strategies to accomplish one of…

Prepared for the 2019 Jackson Hole Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank.

The U.S. dollar exchange rate clears the global market for dollar-denominated safe assets. We find that shifts in the demand and supply…