Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

SSRN Research Paper Series

The Social Science Research Network’s Research Paper Series includes working papers produced by Stanford GSB the Rock Center.

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Axiomatic Equilibrium Selection: The Case of Generic Extensive-Form Games

Srihari Govindan, Robert Wilson
May2025

A solution concept that is a refinement of Nash equilibria selects for each finite game a nonempty collection of closed and connected subsets of Nash equilibria as solutions. We impose three axioms for such solution concepts. The axiom of…

Constructing Carbon Abatement Cost Curves

Gunther Glenk, Rebecca Meier, Stefan J. Reichelstein
May2025

Companies across industries face increasing pressure to assess the costs of decarbonizing their operations. This paper develops a generic model for constructing abatement cost curves in connection with carbon dioxide emissions. The resulting…

Generative AI in Equilibrium: Evidence from a Creative Goods Marketplace

Samuel Goldberg, H. Tai Lam
May2025

Artists and policy makers are concerned that Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) may lead to disappearance of non-GenAI content. In this paper we study the implications of GenAI for the production and consumption of creative goods; such as…

Putting Economics Back Into Geoeconomics

Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger
May2025

Geoeconomics is the use of a country’s economic strength to exert influence on foreign entities to achieve geopolitical or economic goals. We discuss how concepts of power in the political science and economics literature can be used to guide…

The Shadow Price of “Public” Information

Ed deHaan, Chanseok Lee, Miao Liu, Suzie Noh
May2025

Converting public information into stock picks is unlikely to be costless, yet the magnitude of public information processing costs is unknown. We quantify extra-marginal information costs for mutual fund managers by building an “AI analyst” that…

Beauty as a Goal: Creating Harmony Between Health and Taste

Eda Erensoy, Louise Lu, Jennifer Aaker, Ayelet Fishbach
April272025

Individuals frequently perceive a tradeoff between health and taste, leading to poor dietary choices. This research identifies a novel pathway to healthier eating by harmonizing seemingly conflicting goals: seeking beauty in food. Across seven…

Using Multiple Outcomes to Adjust Standard Errors for Spatial Correlation

Stefano DellaVigna, Guido W. Imbens, Woojin Kim, David Ritzwoller
April172025

Empirical research in economics often examines the behavior of agents located in a geographic space. In such cases, statistical inference is complicated by the interdependence of economic outcomes across locations. A common approach to account…

Breaking Through the Ethnic Growth Trap

Saumitra Jha
April2025

In this overview piece, I review the literature and identify important directions for how developing societies can break out of such ethnic growth traps and instead leverage the gains that can often be had from ethnic diversity. To do this…

Dollar Upheaval: This Time is Different

Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Lustig, Robert Richmond, Chenzi Xu
April2025

What can we learn from the high-frequency responses in bond and currency markets to the recent tariff announcement about the status of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency? The dollar depreciated by 3.4% after April 4 in spite of rising…

Managers’ Risk-Return Trade-offs and Corporate Investment

Christopher S. Armstrong, Oscar Timmermans
April2025

Allocating capital to investment projects is one of a manager’s most critical responsibilities. However, such decisions are shaped by managers’ own beliefs and risk preferences, which can differ from those of diversified shareholders. To study…

A Theory of Disclosure Timing

Seung Y. Lee , Iván Marinovic
April2025

We develop a model of disclosure timing in which the firm can commit to disclose its revenues at a fixed date (a time-based disclosure policy) or after a certain number of transactions have occurred (a news arrival-based disclosure policy). We…

A Theory of Economic Coercion and Fragmentation

Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger
April2025

Hegemonic powers, like the United States and China, exert influence on other countries by threatening the suspension or alteration of financial and trade relationships. Mechanisms that generate gains from integration, such as external economies…

Sustainability and Strategic Differentiation in Unregulated Consumer Goods Markets

Kristina Brecko, Yewon Kim
March2025

Motivated by the disconnect between regulatory discussions and industry reports on voluntary sustainability investments, we examine the market equilibrium for sustainable products in the absence of regulation, focusing on firms’ strategic…

Judicial Proficiency and Contract Design: The Role of Business Courts in Shaping Supply Contracts

Christopher S. Armstrong, Sterling Huang, Yanping Xu
February2025

We examine whether access to specialized business courts that are more proficient in resolving contractual disputes influences the design of firms’ supply contracts. We use the staggered creation of these courts in different states at different…

The Pass-through of Corporate Tax Cuts to Consumer Loans: Evidence from the TCJA

Joao Granja, Fabian Nagel, Arndt Weinrich
January312025

Using data from TransUnion, a large U.S. credit bureau, we analyze whether and how cuts in bank income taxation are passed through to the interest rates and size of consumer loans. Exploiting the change in bank corporate income taxation from the…

Losing is Optional: Retail Option Trading and Expected Announcement Volatility

Tim de Silva, Eric C. So, Kevin Smith
January152025

We document the growth of retail options trading and provide evidence that retail investors are drawn to options by anticipated spikes in volatility. Retail investors purchase options in a concentrated fashion before earnings announcements,…

Public Firm Disclosures, Patent Licensing, and the Diffusion of Technology

Jinhwan Kim, Guoman She, Kristen Valentine
January152025

We examine the spillover effects of public firm disclosures on patent licensing, a key mechanism for technology diffusion. An interquartile increase in public firm presence, our proxy for peer disclosures, is linked to a 20.7% higher likelihood…

Does Q&A Boost Engagement? Health Messaging Experiments in the US and Ghana

Erika Kirgios, Susan Athey, Angela L. Duckworth, Dean Karlan, Michael Luca, Katherine L. Milkman, Molly Offer-Westort
January2025

Effective information sharing is critical for the success of organizations and governments. Because information that is easy to access is more likely to be adopted, leaders often minimize friction in information delivery. However, one type of…

Geoeconomic Pressure

Christopher Clayton, Antonio Coppola, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger
2025

Geoeconomic pressure—the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic goals—is a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to…

Policy Brief: Generative Artificial Intelligence: Opportunities for the Future of Work in Chile

Gabriel Weintraub, Victor Morales, Juan Eduardo Carmach, Alvaro Soto
2025

We study the impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) in Chile, focusing on opportunities for task acceleration-specifically, the reduction of execution time for tasks within the hundred most common jobs in the country, corresponding…