Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

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Marco Giacoletti, Kristoffer T. Laursen, Kenneth J. Singleton
May 20, 2018

We study the evolution of risk premiums on US Treasury bonds from the perspective of a real-time Bayesian learner RA who updates her beliefs using a dynamic term structure model. Learning about the historical dynamics...

Gunther Glenk, Stefan J. Reichelstein
April 2018

We examine the magnitude of synergistic effects in vertically integrated energy systems that arise when the external market for an intermediate input (electricity) is imperfect and the two subsystems are subject to operational volatility in...

Maria Dimakopoulou, Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens
March 2, 2018

Although many contextual bandit algorithms have similar theoretical guarantees, the characteristics of real-world applications oftentimes result in large performance dissimilarities across algorithms. We study a consideration for the exploration vs. exploitation framework that does not...

Guido W. Imbens
March 2018

Deaton and Cartwright (DC2017 from hereon) view the increasing popularity of randomized experiments in social sciences with some skepticism. They are concerned about the quality of the inferences in practice, and fear that researchers may...

Stephen Comello, Stefan J. Reichelstein, Anshuman Sahoo
March 2018

Over the past decade, solar photovoltaic (PV) power has experienced dramatic deployment growth coupled with substantial decreases in system prices. This article examines how solar PV power is currently positioned in the electricity marketplace and...

Michael Ostrovsky, Michael Schwarz
February 12, 2018

We study the interplay between autonomous transportation, carpooling, and road pricing. We discuss how improvements in these technologies, and interactions among them, will affect transportation markets. Our main results show how to achieve socially efficient...

Hunt Allcott, Rebecca Diamond, Jean-Pierre Dubé
January 2, 2018

We study the causes of “nutritional inequality”: why the wealthy tend to eat more healthfully than the poor in the U.S. Using two event study designs exploiting entry of new supermarkets and households’ moves to...

Cody Cook, Rebecca Diamond, Jonathan Hall, John A. List, Paul Oyer
January 2018

The growth of the “gig” economy generates worker flexibility that, some have speculated, will favor women. We explore one facet of the gig economy by examining labor supply choices and earnings among more than a...

Hans K. Hvide, Paul Oyer
December 14, 2017

We document three new facts about entrepreneurship. First, a majority of male entrepreneurs start a firm in the same or a closely related industry as their fathers’ industry of employment. Second, this tendency is correlated...

Gunther Glenk, Stefan J. Reichelstein
December 2017

Hydrogen has long been heralded as a potentially critical element in the transition to a low carbon economy. The recent sharp cost declines for renewable energy raise the question whether an economic case can be...

Anat R. Admati, Peter M. DeMarzo, Martin F. Hellwig, Paul Pfleiderer
November 2017

Firms’ inability to commit to future funding choices has profound consequences for capital structure dynamics. With debt in place, shareholders pervasively resist leverage reductions no matter how much such reductions may enhance firm value. Shareholders...

Sebastian Di Tella, Pablo Kurlat
November 2017

We propose a model of banks’ exposure to movements in interest rates and their role in the transmission of monetary shocks. Since bank deposits provide liquidity, higher interest rates allow banks to earn larger spreads...

Alberto Abadie, Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens, Jeffrey Wooldridge
October 9, 2017

In empirical work in economics it is common to report standard errors that account for clustering of units. Typically, the motivation given for the clustering adjustments is that unobserved components in outcomes for units within...

Maja Rudolph, Francisco Ruiz, Susan Athey, David Blei
September 28, 2017

Word embeddings are a powerful approach for analyzing language, and exponential family embeddings (EFE) extend them to other types of data. Here we develop structured exponential family embeddings (S-EFE), a method for discovering embeddings that...

Samuel Antill, Steven Grenadier
September 1, 2017

We model a firm’s optimal capital structure decision in a framework in which it may later choose to enter either Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation. Creditors anticipate equityholders’ ex-post reorganization incentives and price...

Nicholas A. Bloom, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, Michael Webb
September 2017

In many growth models, economic growth arises from people creating ideas, and the long-run growth rate is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present a wide...

Sebastian Di Tella
August 2017

I propose a flexible-price model of liquidity traps. Money provides a safe store of value that prevents interest rates from falling during downturns and depresses investment. This is an equilibrium outcome — prices are flexible,...

Susan Athey, Stefan Wager
July 10, 2017

Many scientific and engineering challenges – ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations – require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment...

Lin William Cong, Steven Grenadier, Yunzhi Hu
June 12, 2017

We model a dynamic economy with strategic complementarity among investors and endogenous government interventions that mitigate coordination failures. We establish equilibrium existence and uniqueness, and show that one intervention can affect another through altering the...

Alberto Abadie, Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens, Jeffrey M. Wooldridge
June 2017

Previously titled: Finite Population Causal Standard Errors

Consider a researcher estimating the parameters of a regression function based on data for all 50 states in the United States or on data for all visits to...