Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

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Michael Ostrovsky, Michael Schwarz
February 12, 2018

We study the interplay between autonomous transportation, carpooling, and road pricing. We discuss how improvements in these technologies, and interactions among them, will affect transportation markets. Our main results show how to achieve socially efficient...

Cody Cook, Rebecca Diamond, Jonathan Hall, John A. List, Paul Oyer
January 2018

The growth of the “gig” economy generates worker flexibility that, some have speculated, will favor women. We explore one facet of the gig economy by examining labor supply choices and earnings among more than a...

Hunt Allcott, Rebecca Diamond, Jean-Pierre Dubé
December 14, 2017

We study the causes of “nutritional inequality”: why the wealthy tend to eat more healthfully than the poor in the U.S. Using two event study designs exploiting entry of new supermarkets and households’ moves to...

Stephen Comello, Stefan J. Reichelstein, Anshuman Sahoo
December 2017

Over the past decade, solar photovoltaic (PV) power has experienced dramatic deployment growth coupled with substantial decreases in system prices. This article examines how solar PV power is currently positioned in the electricity marketplace and...

Anat R. Admati, Peter M. DeMarzo, Martin F. Hellwig, Paul Pfleiderer
November 2017

Forthcoming in Journal of Finance

Firms’ inability to commit to future funding choices has profound consequences for capital structure dynamics. With debt in place, shareholders pervasively resist leverage reductions no matter how much such reductions...

Sebastian Di Tella, Pablo Kurlat
November 2017

We propose a model of banks’ exposure to movements in interest rates and their role in the transmission of monetary shocks. Since bank deposits provide liquidity, higher interest rates allow banks to earn larger spreads...

Alberto Abadie, Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens, Jeffrey Wooldridge
October 9, 2017

In empirical work in economics it is common to report standard errors that account for clustering of units. Typically, the motivation given for the clustering adjustments is that unobserved components in outcomes for units within...

Maja Rudolph, Francisco Ruiz, Susan Athey, David Blei
September 28, 2017

Word embeddings are a powerful approach for analyzing language, and exponential family embeddings (EFE) extend them to other types of data. Here we develop structured exponential family embeddings (S-EFE), a method for discovering embeddings that...

Samuel Antill, Steven Grenadier
September 1, 2017

We model a firm’s optimal capital structure decision in a framework in which it may later choose to enter either Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation. Creditors anticipate equityholders’ ex-post reorganization incentives and price...

Nicholas A. Bloom, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, Michael Webb
September 2017

In many growth models, economic growth arises from people creating ideas, and the long-run growth rate is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present a wide...

Sebastian Di Tella
August 2017

I propose a flexible-price model of liquidity traps. Money provides a safe store of value that prevents interest rates from falling during downturns and depresses investment. This is an equilibrium outcome — prices are flexible,...

Susan Athey, Stefan Wager
July 10, 2017

Many scientific and engineering challenges – ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations – require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment...

Lin William Cong, Steven Grenadier, Yunzhi Hu
June 12, 2017

We model a dynamic economy with strategic complementarity among investors and endogenous government interventions that mitigate coordination failures. We establish equilibrium existence and uniqueness, and show that one intervention can affect another through altering the...

Alberto Abadie, Susan Athey, Guido W. Imbens, Jeffrey M. Wooldridge
June 2017

Previously titled: Finite Population Causal Standard Errors

Consider a researcher estimating the parameters of a regression function based on data for all 50 states in the United States or on data for all visits to...

Susan Athey, Christian Catalini, Catherine E. Tucker
June 2017

‘Notice and Choice’ has been a mainstay of policies designed to safeguard consumer privacy. This paper investigates distortions in consumer behavior when faced with notice and choice which may limit the ability of consumers to...

Dmitry Orlov, Pavel Zryumov, Andrzej Skrzypacz
May 30, 2017

We study the design of macro-prudential stress tests and capital requirements. The tests provide information about correlation in banks portfolios. The regulator chooses contingent capital requirements that create a liquidity buffer in case of a...

Gregory J. Martin, Ali Yurukoglu
April 5, 2017

We measure the persuasive effects of slanted news and tastes for like-minded news, exploiting cable channel positions as exogenous shifters of cable news viewership. Channel positions do not correlate with demographics that predict viewership and...

Kyle Bagwell, Robert W. Staiger, Ali Yurukoglu
March 2017

This paper empirically examines recently declassified data from the GATT/WTO on tariff bargaining. Focusing on the Torquay Round (1950-51), we document six stylized facts about these interconnected high-stakes international negotiations. Several of these stylized facts lend...

Dana Foarta, Takuo Sugaya
February 15, 2017

Why might a country choose to aggregate regulatory information into a single government agency? And what might reverse this choice? We consider an oversight setting in which the institutional structure affects access to information. A...

Ali Yurukoglu, Kyle Bagwell, Robert Staiger
February 2017

We provide an equilibrium analysis of the efficiency properties of bilateral tariff negotiations in a three-country, two-good general equilibrium model of international trade when transfers are not feasible. We consider “weak-rules” settings characterized by two cases: a...