These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.
SSRN Research Paper Series
The Social Science Research Network’s Research Paper Series includes working papers produced by Stanford GSB the Rock Center.
You may search for authors and topics and download copies of the work there.
Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models
In this paper we develop new methods for estimating causal effects in settings with panel data, where a subset of units are exposed to a treatment during a subset of periods, and the goal is estimating counterfactual (untreated) outcomes for the…
Mostly Exploration-Free Algorithms for Contextual Bandits
The contextual bandit literature has traditionally focused on algorithms that address the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. In particular, greedy algorithms that exploit current estimates without any exploration may be sub-optimal in…
Framework Agreements in Procurement: An Auction Model and Design Recommendations
Framework agreements (FAs) are procurement mechanisms commonly used by buying agencies around the world to satisfy demand that arises over a certain time horizon. This paper is one of the first in the literature that provides a formal…
Adaptive Concentration of Regression Trees, with Application to Random Forests
We study the convergence of the predictive surface of regression trees and forests. To support our analysis we introduce a notion of adaptive concentration for regression trees. This approach breaks tree training into a model selection phase in…
A Framework for Dynamic Oligopoly in Concentrated Industries
In this paper we introduce a new computationally tractable framework for Ericson and Pakes (1995)- style dynamic oligopoly models that overcomes the computational complexity involved in computing Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE). First, we define…
Allocating Emissions Among Co-Products: Implications for Procurement and Climate Policy
A state with climate policy may impose a tax on imported products for greenhouse gas emissions that occur in production and transportation to its border (a so-called border adjustment). A buyer may voluntarily commit to …
Evidence of Strategic Upcoding in Medicare Claims Data
Recent Medicare legislation has been directed at improving patient care quality by stopping reimbursement of hospital-acquired conditions (HACs). However, this policy may be undermined if some providers respond by upcoding, a practice…
Dynamic Learning of Patient Response Types: An Application to Treating Chronic Diseases
Currently available medication for treating many chronic diseases is often effective only for a subgroup of patients, and biomarkers accurately assessing whether an individual belongs to this subgroup do not exist. In such settings, physicians…
Disruption Risk and Optimal Sourcing in Multi-tier Supply Networks
We study sourcing in a supply chain with three levels: a manufacturer, Tier 1 suppliers, and Tier 2 suppliers prone to disruption from, e.g., natural disasters like earthquakes or floods. The manufacturer may not directly dictate which Tier 2…
Forecasting Emergency Department Wait Times
This paper proposes a Combined Method (combining fluid model estimators and statistical learning) to forecast the wait time for low-acuity patients in an Emergency Department, and describes the implementation of the…
Improving the Prediction of Emergency Department Waiting Times.
Measurement and Improvement of Social and Environmental Performance under Voluntary versus Mandatory Disclosure
Governments are beginning to mandate that firms disclose information about social and environmental impacts in their supply chains (e.g., regarding conflict minerals and greenhouse gas emissions). This paper shows that such a mandate will…
Multi-Sourcing and Miscoordination in Supply Chain Networks
This paper studies the endogenous formation of supply chain networks when procurement is subject to disruption risk. We argue that the presence of non-convexities in the chain (e.g., due to non-convex production technologies or financial…
Operationalizing Financial Covenants
We study the interplay between financial covenants and the operational decisions of a retailer that obtains financing through a secured, inventory-based lending contract. We characterize how leverage affects dynamic inventory decisions, and…
Optimization in Online Content Recommendation Services: Beyond Click-Through Rates
A new class of online services allows internet media sites to direct users from articles they are currently reading to other content they may be interested in. This process creates a “browsing path” along which there is potential for repeated…
Generating Random Graphs without Short Cycles - Submitted 2013
Random graph generation is an important tool for studying large complex networks and recently has been extensively used by biologists, computer scientists, economists, electrical engineers, and mathematical sociologists. Despite many remarkable…
Non-stationary Stochastic Optimization
We consider a non-stationary variant of a sequential stochastic optimization problem, where the underlying cost functions may change along the horizon. We propose a measure, termed variation budget, that controls the extent of said change,…
Environmental Performance under Voluntary versus Mandatory Disclosure
Governments are beginning to mandate that firms disclose information about social and environmental impacts in their supply chains (e.g., regarding conflict minerals and greenhouse gas emissions). This paper shows…
Strategic Dynamics: Three Key Themes
We study the evolution of industries in terms of three interrelated key themes that together form an analytical lens. The first-theme strategy and strategic dynamics raises the question of how companies can gain, sustain, or regain profitable…
Variability in Emissions Cost: Implications for Facility Location, Production and Trade.
We incorporate a stochastic cost for emissions into Venables’ widely-used model of international trade for a single product. Region 1 has climate policy and Region 2 does not. Each region has a distinct variable cost…