Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

SSRN Research Paper Series

The Social Science Research Network’s Research Paper Series includes working papers produced by Stanford GSB the Rock Center.

You may search for authors and topics and download copies of the work there.

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Financial Innovation in the 21st Century: Evidence from U.S. Patents

Josh Lerner, Amit Seru, Nick Short, Yuan Sun
March2023

We explore the evolution of financial innovation, using 24,000 U.S. finance patents applied for and granted over last two decades. Patented financial innovations are substantial and economically important, with annual grants expanding from a few…

Financial Market Exposure Increases Generalized Trust, Particularly among the Politically Polarized

Saumitra Jha, Moses Shayo, Chagai M. Weiss
March2023

Generalized trust is essential for supporting the functioning of modern societies, yet many countries experience limited trust. Given the social, economic, and political benefits of trust, it is crucial to understand how to increase generalized…

Online Appendix for Scaling Auctions as Insurance: A Case Study in Infrastructure Procurement

Shoshana Vasserman
March2023

Online Appendix for Scaling Auctions as Insurance: A Case Study in Infrastructure Procurement

Revolutionary Contagion

Saumitra Jha, Steven Wilkinson
March2023

We compare political mobilization and support for democratic values during the French Revolution among the home bailliages and among individual members of French regiments sent with the Comte de Rochambeau to fight alongside American…

Theory of Mind May Have Spontaneously Emerged in Large Language Models

Michal Kosinski
March2023

Theory of mind (ToM), or the ability to impute unobservable mental states to others, is central to human social interactions, communication, empathy, self-consciousness, and morality. We tested several language models using 40 classic false-…

Election-Denying Republican Candidates Underperformed in the 2022 Midterms

Janet Malzahn, Andrew B. Hall
February2023

We combine newly collected election data with records of public denials of the results of the 2020 election to estimate the degree to which election-denying Republican candidates for senator, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general…

Flexible and Efficient Contextual Bandits with Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Oracles

Aldo Gael Carranza, Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy, Susan Athey
February2023

Contextual bandit algorithms often estimate reward models to inform decision-making. However, true rewards can contain action-independent redundancies that are not relevant for decision-making. We show it is more data-efficient to estimate any…

Landscape of Caregiving Innovations: Full Report 2023

Susan Wilner Golden
February2023

For individuals who take on the responsibility of caring for another person due to illness, disability, or declining abilities, it can often be challenging, lonely, costly, and exhausting. As the United States continues to address the…

Neural Design for Genetic Perturbation Experiments

Aldo Pacchiano, Drausin Wulsin, Robert A. Barton, Luis Voloch
February2023

The problem of how to genetically modify cells in order to maximize a certain cellular phenotype has taken center stage in drug development over the last few years (with, for example, genetically edited CAR-T, CAR-NK, and CAR-NKT cells entering…

Battling the Coronavirus Infodemic Among Social Media Users in Africa

Molly Offer-Westort, Leah R. Rosenzweig, Susan Athey
January2023

During a global pandemic, how can we best prompt social media users to demonstrate discernment in sharing information online? We ran a contextual adaptive experiment on Facebook Messenger with users in Kenya and Nigeria and tested 40 combinations…

Boosting Sales and Customer Welfare from Premade Foods (Let the Freshest Chicken Fly Off the Shelf First)

Dan A. Iancu, Jae-Hyuck Park, Erica Plambeck
January2023

[Submitted to Management Science.]

This paper examines a grocery retailer’s management of a premade food product. The retailer’s goal is to maximize a weighted sum of direct profit and customer welfare. Multiple items of the…

Culture in Large and Small Organizations: Perceptions, Beliefs and Experiences

Glenn R. Carroll, Lara Yang
January2023

We attempt here to make some progress on developing a fuller understanding of the relationship between organizational size and culture. In doing so, we report on a survey we administered to a sample of full-time workers (men and women) in the US…

Homemade Foreign Trading

Zhiguo He, Yuehan Wang, Xiaoquan Zhu
January2023

Using cross-border holding data from all custodians in China’s Stock Connect, we provide evidence that Chinese mainland insiders tend to evade the see-through surveillance by round-tripping via the Stock Connect program. After the regulatory…

Investor Composition and Overreaction

Michael Blank, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, Johnny Tang
January2023

Do stock price run-ups predictably revert? We develop a model of financial markets with two types of investors: rational investors and “oversensitive” investors who react excessively to salient public news. The model yields a summary statistic…

Organizational Capacity and Project Dynamics

Dana Foarta, Michael M. Ting
January2023

This paper provides a dynamic theory of the effects of organizational capacity on public policy. Consistent with prevailing accounts, a bureaucratic organization with higher capacity, i.e., a better ability to get things done, is more likely to…

Sophisticated Consumers with Inertia: Long-Term Implications from a Large-Scale Field Experiment

Klaus M. Miller, Navdeep S. Sahni, Avner Strulov-Shlain
January2023

Consumer inertia, the tendency to remain inactive, is a robust and well-documented phenomenon. However, if consumers are aware of their future inertia they can act to mitigate its effects on their outcomes. Using a large-scale randomized field…

Imagined Otherness: Perceived Schematic Difference Can Fuel Dehumanization

Austin van Loon, Amir Goldberg, Sameer B. Srivastava
2023

Why do people withdraw the dignity of humanity from others? Sociologists have focused on the roles of institutional processes through which blatantly dehumanizing norms and narratives diffuse through a population, whereas social psychologists…

Locally Ensconced and Globally Integrated: How Positions in Network Structure Relate to a Language-Based Model of Group Identification

Lara Yang, Amir Goldberg, Sameer B. Srivastava
2023

Shifting attachments to social groups are a constant in the modern era. What accounts for variation in the strength of group identification? Whereas prior work has emphasized group-level properties and individual differences, this article instead…

Strategic Behavior with Tight, Loose and Polarized Norms

Eugen Dimant, Michele J. Gelfand, Anna Hochleitner, Silvia Sonderegger
2023

Descriptive norms — the behavior of other individuals in one’s reference group — play a key role in shaping individual decisions. When characterizing the behavior of others, a standard approach in the literature is to focus on average behavior.…

Heterogeneous-agent asset pricing: Timing and pricing idiosyncratic risks

James D. Paron
December152022

This paper studies the importance of idiosyncratic endowment shocks for aggregate asset prices in a generalized continuous-time framework that accommodates both jumps and recursive preferences. I show that, regardless of the presence of jumps,…