Working Papers

These papers are working drafts of research which often appear in final form in academic journals. The published versions may differ from the working versions provided here.

SSRN Research Paper Series

The Social Science Research Network’s Research Paper Series includes working papers produced by Stanford GSB the Rock Center.

You may search for authors and topics and download copies of the work there.

Academic Area
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Impact Matters for Giving at Checkout

Susan Athey, Matias Cersosimo, Dean Karlan, Kristine Koutout, Henrike Steimer
December2023

We conducted two experiments on PayPal’s Give at Checkout feature to learn about the effect of 1) information about charity outcomes on donations, and 2) exposure to these point-of-sale microgiving requests on subsequent giving. In this “…

Market Design for Surface Water

Billy Ferguson, Paul R. Milgrom
December2023

Many proposed surface water transfers undergo a series of regulatory reviews designed to mitigate hydrological and economic externalities. While these reviews help limit externalities, they impose substantial transaction costs that also limit…

Proportional Response: Contextual Bandits for Simple and Cumulative Regret Minimization

Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy, Ruohan Zhan, Susan Athey, Emma Brunskill
November2023

In many applications, e.g. in healthcare and e-commerce, the goal of a contextual bandit may be to learn an optimal treatment assignment policy at the end of the experiment. That is, to minimize simple regret. However, this objective remains…

Machine Learning Who to Nudge: Causal vs Predictive Targeting in a Field Experiment on Student Financial Aid Renewal

Susan Athey, Niall Keleher, Jann Spiess
October2023

In many settings, interventions may be more effective for some individuals than others, so that targeting interventions may be beneficial. We analyze the value of targeting in the context of a large-scale field experiment with over 53,000 college…

The Zero-Beta Rate

Sebastian Di Tella, Benjamin Hébert, Pablo Kurlat, Qitong Wang
August142023

We use equity returns to construct a time-varying measure of the interest rate that we call the zero-beta rate: the expected return of a stock portfolio orthogonal to the stochastic discount factor. The zero-beta rate is high and volatile. In…

Targeting, Personalization, and Engagement in an Agricultural Advisory Service

Susan Athey, Shawn Allen Cole, Shanjukta Nath, S. Jessica Zhu
August2023

ICT is increasingly used to deliver customized information in developing countries. We examine whether individually targeting the timing of automated voice calls meaningfully increases engagement in an agricultural advisory service. We define,…

Decomposing Changes in the Gender Wage Gap over Worker Careers

Keyon Vafa, Susan Athey, David M. Blei
July2023

A large literature in labor economics seeks to decompose observed gender wage gaps (GWGs) into different sources, including portions explained by cross-gender differences in education, occupation, and experience. This paper provides new methods…

The Heterogeneous Earnings Impact of Job Loss Across Workers, Establishments, and Markets

Susan Athey, Lisa K. Simon, Oskar N. Skans, Johan Vikstrom, Yaroslav Yakymovych
July2023

Using generalized random forests and rich Swedish administrative data, we show that the earnings effects of job displacement due to establishment closures are extremely heterogeneous across workers, establishments, and markets. The decile of…

Torch-Choice: A PyTorch Package for Large-Scale Choice Modelling with Python

Tianyu Du, Ayush Kanodia, Susan Athey
July2023

The torch-choice is an open-source library for flexible, fast choice modeling with Python and PyTorch. torch-choice provides a ChoiceDataset data structure to manage databases flexibly and memory-efficiently. The paper demonstrates constructing a…

Online Appendix for Scaling Auctions as Insurance: A Case Study in Infrastructure Procurement

Shoshana Vasserman
March2023

Online Appendix for Scaling Auctions as Insurance: A Case Study in Infrastructure Procurement

Flexible and Efficient Contextual Bandits with Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Oracles

Aldo Gael Carranza, Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy, Susan Athey
February2023

Contextual bandit algorithms often estimate reward models to inform decision-making. However, true rewards can contain action-independent redundancies that are not relevant for decision-making. We show it is more data-efficient to estimate any…

Battling the Coronavirus Infodemic Among Social Media Users in Africa

Molly Offer-Westort, Leah R. Rosenzweig, Susan Athey
January2023

During a global pandemic, how can we best prompt social media users to demonstrate discernment in sharing information online? We ran a contextual adaptive experiment on Facebook Messenger with users in Kenya and Nigeria and tested 40 combinations…

Personalized Recommendations in EdTech: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

Keshav Agrawal, Susan Athey, Ayush Kanodia, Emil Palikot
December2022

We study the impact of personalized content recommendations on the usage of an educational app for children. In a randomized controlled trial, we show that the introduction of personalized recommendations increases the consumption of content in…

The Contribution of High-Skilled Immigrants to Innovation in the United States

Shai Bernstein, Rebecca Diamond, Abhisit Jiranaphawiboon, Timothy James McQuade, Beatriz Pousada
December2022

We characterize the contribution of immigrants to U.S. innovation, both through their direct productivity as well as through their indirect spillover effects on their native collaborators. To do so, we link patent records to a database containing…

Effective and Scalable Programs to Facilitate Labor Market Transitions for Women in Technology

Susan Athey, Emil Palikot
November182022

We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of a low-cost and scalable program that supports women in Poland in transitioning into jobs in the information technology sector. This program, called “Challenges,” helps…

Contextual Bandits in a Survey Experiment on Charitable Giving: Within-Experiment Outcomes versus Policy Learning

Susan Athey, Undral Byambadalai, Vitor Hadad, Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy, Weiwen Leung, Joseph Jay Williams
November2022

We design and implement an adaptive experiment (a “contextual bandit”) to learn a targeted treatment assignment policy, where the goal is to use a participant’s survey responses to determine which charity to expose them to in a donation…

Emotion- Versus Reasoning-Based Drivers of Misinformation Sharing: A Field Experiment Using Text Message Courses in Kenya

Susan Athey, Matias Cersosimo, Kristine Koutout, Zelin Li
November2022

Two leading hypotheses for why individuals unintentionally share misinformation are that 1) they are unable to recognize that a post contains misinformation, and 2) they make impulsive, emotional sharing decisions without thinking about whether a…

Policy Learning with Adaptively Collected Data

Ruohan Zhan, Zhimei Ren, Susan Athey, Zhengyuan Zhou
November2022

Learning optimal policies from historical data enables the gains from personalization to be realized in a wide variety of applications. The growing policy learning literature focuses on a setting where the treatment assignment policy does not…

Smiles in Profiles: Improving Fairness and Efficiency Using Estimates of User Preferences in Online Marketplaces

Susan Athey, Dean Karlan, Emil Palikot, Yuan Yuan
November2022

Online platforms often face challenges being both fair (i.e., non-discriminatory) and efficient (i.e., maximizing revenue). Using computer vision algorithms and observational data from a microlending marketplace, we find that choices made by…

CAREER: Transfer Learning for Economic Prediction of Labor Sequence Data

Keyon Vafa, Emil Palikot, Tianyu Du, Ayush Kanodia, Susan Athey, David M. Blei
October2022

Labor economists regularly analyze employment data by fitting predictive models to small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets. Although modern machine learning methods offer promise for such problems, these survey datasets are too…