Working Papers

Modern language-model deployments must often balance competing objectives—for example, helpfulness versus harmlessness, cost versus accuracy, and reward versus safety. We introduce Conformal Arbitrage, a post-hoc framework that…

It remains a continuing challenge for companies worldwide to reliably assess the greenhouse gas emissions incurred in connection with their operations. Here we argue that financial accounting offers an architectural template for corporate carbon…

Governments worldwide have recently launched policy support programs for hydrogen, where the level of support is to be tied to the carbon intensity of the hydrogen produced. Here we analyze the impact of alternative accounting rules for assessing…

Third-party litigation finance is an increasingly popular practice in commercial litigation. Despite calls for mandated disclosure, litigation funders are mostly anonymous to defendants, judges and juries. We first present an equilibrium model of…

We construct an international panel data set comprising three distinct yet plausible measures of government indebtedness: the debt-to-GDP, the interest-to-GDP, and the debt-to-equity ratios. Our analysis reveals that these measures yield…

Populism has been on the rise, posing a threat to liberal democracy. Existing evidence suggests that globalization, economic shocks, and concerns over cultural change increase support for populist agendas. Yet less is known about interventions…

We show how to measure the welfare effects arising from increased data availability. When lenders have more data on prospective borrower costs, they can charge prices that are more aligned with these costs. This increases total social welfare and…

As LLMs become the default interface for search, news, and everyday problem-solving, they may filter and frame political information before citizens ever confront it. Identifying and mitigating partisan “bias”—output with a systematic slant…

This paper provides early evidence on the integration and impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) in accounting at the accountant and task levels. Using a multi-method approach, we first identify heterogeneous adoption patterns,…

We develop a rational, non-behavioral framework in which analysts use empirical Bayesian techniques to construct their forecasts. Our approach assumes that analysts construct a single empirical prior by aggregating information across all of the…

We investigate the ability of Vision Language Models (VLMs) to perform visual perspective taking using a novel set of visual tasks inspired by established human tests. Our approach leverages carefully controlled scenes, in which a single humanoid…

A solution concept that is a refinement of Nash equilibria selects for each finite game a nonempty collection of closed and connected subsets of Nash equilibria as solutions. We impose three axioms for such solution concepts. The axiom of…

Companies across industries face increasing pressure to assess the costs of decarbonizing their operations. This paper develops a generic model for constructing abatement cost curves in connection with carbon dioxide emissions. The resulting…

Artists and policy makers are concerned that Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) may lead to disappearance of non-GenAI content. In this paper we study the implications of GenAI for the production and consumption of creative goods; such as…

Geoeconomics is the use of a country’s economic strength to exert influence on foreign entities to achieve geopolitical or economic goals. We discuss how concepts of power in the political science and economics literature can be used to guide…

Converting public information into stock picks is unlikely to be costless, yet the magnitude of public information processing costs is unknown. We quantify extra-marginal information costs for mutual fund managers by building an “AI analyst” that…

Individuals frequently perceive a tradeoff between health and taste, leading to poor dietary choices. This research identifies a novel pathway to healthier eating by harmonizing seemingly conflicting goals: seeking beauty in food. Across seven…

Empirical research in economics often examines the behavior of agents located in a geographic space. In such cases, statistical inference is complicated by the interdependence of economic outcomes across locations. A common approach to account…

In this overview piece, I review the literature and identify important directions for how developing societies can break out of such ethnic growth traps and instead leverage the gains that can often be had from ethnic diversity. To do this…

What can we learn from the high-frequency responses in bond and currency markets to the recent tariff announcement about the status of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency? The dollar depreciated by 3.4% after April 4 in spite of rising…