Working Papers

Modern recommender systems rely on black-box machine learning models to predict consumer choices. However, because these models do not explicitly represent the underlying data-generating process (DGP), they often struggle to generalize beyond…

This paper develops and estimates a structural model of the labor market for accountants that integrates forward-looking lifetime occupational choices with oligopsonistic employer demand. Using longitudinal resume data covering career transitions…

This paper studies partisan differences in medical practice over 1999-2019. I link physicians in the Medicare claims data with campaign contributions to identify party alignment. In 1999, there are no partisan differences in medical expenditure…

This paper analyzes interactions between corporate governance and law enforcement practices, focusing on cases where deterrence is weak and harmful misconduct is profitable. We show how managerial compensation contracts, including stock-based…

Firms’ diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies have received significant scrutiny in recent years, including their efficacy and role in long-term value creation. We provide new evidence on these issues by studying what is arguably the…

Obesity and excess weight are major global health challenges. A number of technological solutions, including mobile apps, have been developed to help people lose weight. Many such applications provide access to human coaches who help consumers…

Responding to economic and environmental pressures, a growing number of companies seek to repurpose products (assets) that retain functional capacity beyond their initial first life. This paper examines a generic valuation model for used capacity…

This paper studies expectations formation when the underlying process has fat tails. Using a large sample of firm sales growth expectations, we document three facts: (i) the relationship between forecast revisions and future forecast errors is…

Over the last half-century, economic growth stagnated but stock-market wealth boomed. I present evidence that declining innovation productivity reconciles these trends. At the macro level, I document that R&D spending has fallen relative to…

This paper studies whether households are selectively inattentive to interest rates and examines its macroeconomic implications. We first use existing and newly-designed household surveys to establish that households close to durables purchases…

Student loans with income-contingent repayment insure borrowers against income risk but can reduce their incentives to earn more. Using a change in Australia’s income-contingent repayment schedule, I show that borrowers reduce their labor supply…

Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We…

Since the 2000s, U.S. public pension funds have actively shifted their risky investments away from public equities and toward alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds—some much more than others. We explore a range of possible…

It remains a continuing challenge for companies worldwide to reliably assess the greenhouse gas emissions incurred in connection with their operations. Here we argue that financial accounting offers an architectural template for corporate carbon…

Governments worldwide have recently launched policy support programs for hydrogen, where the level of support is to be tied to the carbon intensity of the hydrogen produced. Here we analyze the impact of alternative accounting rules for assessing…

Third-party litigation finance is an increasingly popular practice in commercial litigation. Despite calls for mandated disclosure, litigation funders are mostly anonymous to defendants, judges and juries. We first present an equilibrium model of…

Populism has been on the rise, posing a threat to liberal democracy. Existing evidence suggests that globalization, economic shocks, and concerns over cultural change increase support for populist agendas. Yet less is known about interventions…

We show how to measure the welfare effects arising from increased data availability. When lenders have more data on prospective borrower costs, they can charge prices that are more aligned with these costs. This increases total social welfare and…

As LLMs become the default interface for search, news, and everyday problem-solving, they may filter and frame political information before citizens ever confront it. Identifying and mitigating partisan “bias”—output with a systematic slant…