The Old and New Export Pessimism: A Critical Survey

Rather ironically, the very success of the East Asian NICS (Newly Industrializing Countries) has evoked a new export pessimism. This paper sorts out the arguments underlying this pessimism and evaluates their credibility. The discussion moves from a summary of the old export pessimism and the results of import substitution (section 1), to the case for export promotion (section 2), and to an evaluation of the new export pessimism (section 3).